I'm doing an OLS regression to estimate the global financial cycle from 1980q2 to 2018q4. I have to use all dependent variables in growth rate but when I use GDP in growth rate I get non-significant results whereas if I use it in levels I get a significant result.
These are the data I'm using in the first case:
And I have this output:
Instead these are the data I'm using in the second case:
And this is the output:
The regression I'm doing using Eviewsis: gfc=C(1)+C(2)*ggrowth(-1)+C(3)*inflation(-1)+C(4)*gdp(-1)+C(5)*spread10y2y(-1)+C(6)*policyrate(-1)+C(7)*gfc(-1)
All dependent variables are lagged by one period
I'm taking the data from
inflation USA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORESTICKM159SFRBATL#0
policy rate USA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF#0
spread 10y2y USA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y#0
gdp USA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0
g usa: (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W068RCQ027SBEA)
Can you help me understanding if the regression I've done is correct? Or can you help me doing the right regression to have a significant result? Thank you very much.
