My recollection from McCabe's work on this exact subject is: you generate the basis paths systematically, changing one condition at a time, and only changing the last condition, until you can't change any new conditions.
Suppose we start with FF, which is the shortest path. Following the algorithm, we change the last if in the chain, yielding FT. We've covered the second if now, meaning: if there was a bug in the second if, surely our two tests were paying attention to what happened when the second if statement suddenly started executing, otherwise our tests aren't working or our code isn't verifiable. Both possibilities suggest our code needs reworking.
Having covered FT, we go back up one node in the path and change the first T to F. When building basis paths, we only change one condition at a time. So we are forced to leave the second if the same, yielding... TT!
We are left with these basis paths: {FF, FT, TT}. Which address the issue you raised.
But wait, you say, what if the bug occurs in the TF case?? The answer is: we should have already noticed it between two of the other three tests. Think about it:
- The second if already had its chance to demonstrate its effect on the code independently any other changes to the execution of the program through the FF and FT tests.
- The first if had its chance to demonstrate its independent effect going from FT to TT.
We could have started with the TT case (the longest path). We would have arrived at slightly different basis paths, but they would still exercise each if statement independently.
Notice in your simple example, there is no co-linearity in the conditions of the if statements. Co-linearity cripples basis path generation.
In short: basis path testing, done systematically, avoids the problems you think it has. Basis path testing doesn't tell you how to write verifiable code. (TDD does that.) More to the point, path testing doesn't tell you which assertions you need to make. That's your job as the human.
Source: this is my research area, but I read McCabe's paper on this exact subject a few years back: http://mccabe.com/pdf/mccabe-nist235r.pdf