Anything you do has impact on performance. There are situations that force you to use an access log. You can measure the impact if you run JMeter against your web server. You will see that the impact does not hang your system or anything dramatic...
This impact depends on too many factors, so measuring yourself will give you a clear result. After all the access log files are meant to be used in production environments.
We use access log files for e-shops all the time. They provide useful user access behavioral information. Tagging has an impact on performance as well. Still if you want higher accuracy you may have to use both methods simultaneously.
Rich Internet Applications and Ajax alienate the access scheme, placing more processing to the browser of your client. GWT application i.e. render the tomcat access file useless and tagging will be necessary.
Make your log files rotatable in order to keep them in reasonable sizes and ftp them to another system in order to process them, according to the Data Warehouse principles.