What effort is then required though if you decide to refactor your project structure?
Not a lot of effort, but some discipline.
Events are messages, and long term viability of messages depend on having a schema, where the schema is deliberately designed to support forward and backward compatibility.
So something like "event type" would be a field name that can be any of an open set of identifiers which would each have an official spelling and semantics.
The spelling conventions that you use don't matter - you can use something that looks like a name in a hierarchical namespace, or you can use a URI, or even just a number like a surrogate key.
The identifiers, whatever convention you use, are coupled to the specification -- not to the class hierarchy that implements them.
In other words, there's no particular reason that org.example.events.Stopped necessarily implies the existence of a type org.example.events.Stopped.
Your "factories" are supposed to create instances of the correct classes/data structures from the messages, and while the naive mapping from schema identifier to class identifier works, then yes, they can take that shortcut. But when you decide to refactor your packages, you have to change the implementation of the factory such that the old identifiers from the message schema map to the new class implementations.
In other words, using something like Class.forName
is a shortcut, which you abandon in favor of doing the translation explicitly when the short cut no longer works.