Is quite easy question.
The one from WPF Toolkit was updated in may 2009 (near 2 years) and when I tried it, I got some problems with localized editions of VS2008 (don't know how it works on 2010).
MVVM Light have more life, Laurent is always working on it and he is actually working on a sweet v4 that will rocks.
On the other hand, MVVM Light works for WPF/SL/WP7, it have more features and is still very easy to use.
If that is not enough, MVVM Light is growing so fast, the people are starting to create a bunch of apps using it and even you can see Microsoft conferences using MVVM Light as the MVVM Toolkit.
You need more?
PS: Dont be worried about your second consideration. MVVM itself, the idea, is not that hard, is just a design pattern.
If one day you want another MVVM Toolkit, you will see that is the same thing, if Laurent use on MVVM Light a Messenger, on Prism for example you will find the same idea under "EventAggregator".
In short, same ideas but different complexity and talking about something powerful and easy, Mvvm Light.