I have a time series with temperature measures every 5-minutes over ca. 5-7 days. I'm looking to set the correlation structure for my model as I have considerable temporal autocorrelation. I've decided that moving averages would be the best form, but I am unsure what to specify within the correlation = corARMA(q=?)
part of the model. Here is the following output for ACF(m1)
:
lag ACF
1 0 1.000000000
2 1 0.906757430
3 2 0.782992821
4 3 0.648405513
5 4 0.506600300
6 5 0.369248402
7 6 0.247234208
8 7 0.139716028
9 8 0.059351579
10 9 -0.009968973
11 10 -0.055269347
12 11 -0.086383590
13 12 -0.108512009
14 13 -0.114441343
15 14 -0.104985321
16 15 -0.089398656
17 16 -0.070320370
18 17 -0.051427604
19 18 -0.028491302
20 19 0.005331508
21 20 0.044325557
22 21 0.083718759
23 22 0.121348020
24 23 0.143549745
25 24 0.151540265
26 25 0.146369313
It appears that there is highly significant autocorrelation in the first ca. 7 lags. See also the attached images: 1[Residuals] & 2[Model]
Would this mean I set the correlation = corARMA(q=7)
?