I think whatever you think your fears are, they're unfounded.
First, if your long term project is relying on too-be-released software (i.e. stuff that isn't even out yet, like JDK 7, 8, and whatever features they may or may not bring), then you need to re-evaluate that part of your plan.
If you expect to have a reliable Java 6 implementation in the long term, then you probably shouldn't worry.
Java 6 is solid, reliable, and it's not going away. AT A MINIMUM, Oracle, as a company, is going to continue to invest and develop its applications servers and middle ware, all of which rely on Java.
It is in NO ONES interest to "cripple" Java. While you may not get "free" tech support from Oracle, Oracle will continue to provide and maintain freely available for production, and viable JVMs for the platforms they support now (notably x86 and SPARC), and they've already agreed to pick up the JVM for Mac OS.
So, in that sense, I don't see Java 6 suddenly (i.e. next 5 years) going away. Support may be deprecated and maintenance stopped to a point in lieu of J7 or J8. Consider the legs Java 5 still have, and even Java 4 in some places, still today. But I see no foreseeable end of life for Java as a whole.
Is any of this FACT? Do I have public or secret Oracle memo's committing to any of this? No.
I have no crystal balls.
But I don't see the future of Java as cloudy at all. Stirred up a bit, sure, but not cloudy. In the conservative world of corporate IT, stability is greatly treasured. Status Quo A Number One. The only thing that will "hurt Java" is something else entirely, it sure won't be Oracle.