If a swf located at http://example.com/test.swf makes a request to https://secure.com/webservice.xml, what happens? Adobe's documentation on cross domain policy files notes the "secure" attribute.
secure: [HTTPS and Sockets only, optional] Specifies whether access is granted only to HTTPS documents from the specified origin (true) or to all documents from the specified origin (false). If secure is not specified in an HTTPS policy file, it defaults to true. Using false in an HTTPS policy file is not recommended because this compromises the security offered by HTTPS; for example, allowing man-in-the-middle attacks to gain access to the HTTPS data protected by the policy file.
Does this mean the Flash player will actually make an HTTP request, rather than HTTPS? Is the issue that there's a presumption of less trust for .swf files being served from a non-secure domain? If the Flash player makes a proper SSL request, I don't see where the additional man-in-the-middle vulnerability comes from. And if it doesn't, I have to think the web server would probably be configured to reject it.