With the advent of bit code and app thinning, it's more complex to figure out the size of your app that the user will actually download.
You should make sure you are set up to support BitCode and app thinning. Those things will make the IPA file you submit to the app store larger, but the actual IPA that's delivered to the user smaller.
(BitCode uploads an intermediate binary representation of your app's code to the app store, which the app store then compiles for the target device, rather than including a "fat" binary that has separate executables for each target processor.
App thinning causes the system to split out the platform-specific and resolution-specific assets (e.g. non-retina, @2x, and @3x artwork, plus iPad and iPhone specific full-screen images, storyboards, etc.) and only deliver the assets for the user's particular device.)