I wonder if this documentation is simply out of date. After all, the description would seem to make analyze table
much, much less useful. And that is documented as:
MySQL uses the stored key distribution to decide the order in which
tables should be joined when you perform a join on something other
than a constant. In addition, key distributions can be used when
deciding which indexes to use for a specific table within a query.
This description specifically contradicts the documentation in the internals document.
Or, perhaps this reference is poorly written and applies to situations where no other key distribution information is available. As you say, using the index with the higher cardinality would probably be a better place to start.
Also, as stated in the documentation itself, the use of "join type" is a poor description. This should really just be called "comparison type", or something like that.