I know this is really old now but stumbled across it looking for something similar where I needed a random sign (+ or -) so opted for a random boolean:
<?php $sign = (rand(0,1) == 1) ? '+' : '-'; ?>
Thanks to this this answer.
So I would opt for a solution like this:
<?php
// Alter these as needed
$number = 1000;
$percentage = 20;
// Calculate the change
$change_by = $number * ($percentage / 100);
// Set a boolean at random
$random_boolean = rand(0,1) == 1;
// Calculate the result where we are using plus if true or minus if false
$result = ($random_boolean) ? $number + $change_by : $number - $change_by;
// Will output either 1200 or 800 using these numbers as an example
echo $result;
?>