Questions tagged [causality]

Causality (also referred to as causation) is the relationship between an event (the cause) and a second event (the effect), where the second event is understood as a consequence of the first.

This tag is here because many questions refer to cause and effect misconceptions.

In common usage Causality is also the relationship between a set of factors (causes) and a phenomenon (the effect). Anything that affects an effect is a factor of that effect. A direct factor is a factor that affects an effect directly, that is, without any intervening factors. (Intervening factors are sometimes called "intermediate factors.") The connection between a cause(s) and effect in this way can also be referred to as a causal nexus.

Though the causes and effects are typically related to changes or events, candidates include objects, processes, properties, variables, facts, and states of affairs; characterizing the causal relationship can be the subject of much debate.

The philosophical treatment of causality extends over millennia. In the Western philosophical tradition, discussion stretches back at least to Aristotle, and the topic remains a staple in contemporary philosophy.

Causality contrasted with conditionals

Conditional statements are not statements of causality. An important distinction is that statements of causality require the antecedent to precede or coincide with the consequent in time, whereas conditional statements do not require this temporal order. Confusion commonly arises since many different statements in English may be presented using "If ..., then ..." form (and, arguably, because this form is far more commonly used to make a statement of causality). The two types of statements are distinct, however.

For example, all of the following statements are true when interpreting "If ..., then ..." as the material conditional:

If Barack Obama is president of the United States in 2011, then Germany is in Europe.
If George Washington is president of the United States in 2011, then <arbitrary statement>.

The first is true since both the antecedent and the consequent are true. The second is true in sentential logic and indeterminate in natural language, regardless of the consequent statement that follows, because the antecedent is false.

The ordinary indicative conditional has somewhat more structure than the material conditional. For instance, although the first is the closest, neither of the preceding two statements seems true as an ordinary indicative reading. But the sentence

If Shakespeare of Stratford-on-Avon did not write Macbeth, then someone else did.

intuitively seems to be true, even though there is no straightforward causal relation in this hypothetical situation between Shakespeare's not writing Macbeth and someone else's actually writing it.

Another sort of conditional, the counterfactual conditional, has a stronger connection with causality, yet even counterfactual statements are not all examples of causality. Consider the following two statements:

If A were a triangle, then A would have three sides.
If switch S were thrown, then bulb B would light.

In the first case, it would not be correct to say that A's being a triangle caused it to have three sides, since the relationship between triangularity and three-sidedness is that of definition. The property of having three sides actually determines A's state as a triangle. Nonetheless, even when interpreted counterfactually, the first statement is true.

A full grasp of the concept of conditionals is important to understanding the literature on causality. A crucial stumbling block is that conditionals in everyday English are usually loosely used to describe a general situation. For example, "If I drop my coffee, then my shoe gets wet" relates an infinite number of possible events. It is shorthand for "For any fact that would count as 'dropping my coffee', some fact that counts as 'my shoe gets wet' will be true". This general statement will be strictly false if there is any circumstance where I drop my coffee and my shoe doesn't get wet. However, an "If..., then..." statement in logic typically relates two specific events or facts—a specific coffee-dropping did or did not occur, and a specific shoe-wetting did or did not follow. Thus, with explicit events in mind, if I drop my coffee and wet my shoe, then it is true that "If I dropped my coffee, then I wet my shoe", regardless of the fact that yesterday I dropped a coffee in the trash for the opposite effect—the conditional relates to specific facts. More counterintuitively, if I didn't drop my coffee at all, then it is also true that "If I drop my coffee then I wet my shoe", or "Dropping my coffee implies I wet my shoe", regardless of whether I wet my shoe or not by any means. This usage would not be counterintuitive if it were not for the everyday usage. Briefly, "If X then Y" is equivalent to the first-order logic statement "A implies B" or "not A-and-not-B", where A and B are predicates, but the more familiar usage of an "if A then B" statement would need to be written symbolically using a higher order logic using quantifiers ("for all" and "there exists").

Questionable Cause

Fallacies of questionable cause, also known as causal fallacies, non causa pro causa ("non-cause for cause" in Latin) or false cause, are informal fallacies where a cause is incorrectly identified.

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Do mobile phones have anything to do with brain cancer?

Is there evidence for a correlation between the use of mobile phones and the occurence of brain cancer? If yes, is there also evidence for causality?
user288
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Do violent video games cause violent behavior?

I have been following this question casually over the past couple of years, and it seemed to me that there was no strong consensus either way on the subject. However, I recently read an editorial from one of the scientists involved in the Supreme…
anthony137
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Do school uniforms improve student behavior?

Many of the advocates of school uniforms claim that uniforms for students in K-12 reduce behavior problems such as bullying. What evidence exists to support or contradict these claims? For example, it's fair to say that students are less likely to…
Martha F.
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Does exercise make you healthier?

It is widely believed that regular exercise helps people become fitter, stronger and healthier. For example, from Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans: Regular physical activity is one of the most important things you can do for your health.…
John
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Correlation between ring finger length and sexual preference

Is there any truth to the claim that people who have ring fingers that are longer than their index fingers are attracted to the opposite sex? In other words, in the picture below, the hand on the left belongs to a heterosexual person, while the hand…
Gustavo Mori
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Do solar flares increase the probability of an earthquake?

So, with Japan in the news today, weird theories about earthquakes are at the forefront again. The theory that solar flares are correlated with earthquakes came up, so of course I tried to find some information online. To my surprise there seems…
mootinator
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Is non-ionizing radiation known to cause any health issues?

Non-ionizing radiation, like radiation from mobile phones, electric power transmission, and radio frequencies, etc. is regarded by the majority of people as safe to the human body. However the World Health Organization in 2011 stated: The…
Garrett Fogerlie
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Does wearing red give an advantage in competitive sport?

Inspired by two recent questions about colour ( Is there a relationship between yellow and moods?) and sport ( Is playing sport at your 'home ground' a benefit? ) I thought the following question should be addressed on skeptics.SE: does wearing red…
matt_black
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Seat belts in cars save the lives of occupants in cars, but do they lead to lower deaths for all road users?

Reading and contributing to the skeptics debate about the effects of cycle helmets reminded me of the much more significant debate on seat belts in cars. Most countries seem to have accepted that they should be compulsory. The UK government claimed…
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Are the methods and conclusions of the study "Clear connection between wireless devices and cancer, experts say" sound?

The article, no longer linked at Science Daily, by is summarized: A metabolic imbalance caused by radiation from your wireless devices could be the link to a number of health risks, such as various neurodegenerative diseases and cancer, a recent…
Brian M. Hunt
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Can getting in and out of a vehicle at a gas station cause combustion?

The warning signs at gas stations warn that you ought not enter and exit your vehicle while filling up your tank at the gas station. I have also been told by many people that doing so runs a risk of igniting the fuel or making your vehicle…
asteri
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What is the *causal* link between smoking and lung cancer?

I have been discussing smoking with a fellow who states that for all the decades of study of the tobacco leaf, still nobody has managed to find what part of the process of smoking the tobacco leaf causes lung cancer. He pointed out that so far most…
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Does attending a highly ranked high school in the US increase one's future success?

At the very least in the US it is widely believed that sending one's kids to a highly ranked high school is paramount, to the point where parents deliberately move to a better school district just to get access to a better school. But has it been…
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About another answer; it seems to me not one, but two of the sources are irrelevant

I am skeptical about a reference in an old accepted answer on whether there is a connection between the way one dresses and the chance of being raped. Since the post this concerns is protected, could someone please confirm that the second source…
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Is vinegar dangerous for dishwashers?

This post claims that putting vinegar in rinse aid reservoir of a dishwasher leads to damage (similar claims can be found here and here): on newer dishwashers, the rinse aid compartments have rubber components that aren’t really compatible with…
Dmitry Grigoryev
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