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As I understand it, the manufacturer of the slot machine is on the hook for any progressive jackpot the machine pays out.

Given that modern day slot machines use a random number generator (and knowing a few things about how RNGs are not quite random enough), is the manufacturer aware of when a particular machine will hit the jackpot?

If the manufacturer is aware, is it because the machine itself notifies them in some fashion or are they aware because they can simply model the results in some simulator?

EDIT

I recall watching a Travel Channel show about slot machine gambling a few years ago. They mentioned that when somebody wins one of these progressive jackpots that the manufacturer is notified by the machine. They also mentioned that the manufacturer and casino have an agreement where the manufacturer provides the machines for free or a nominal cost in exchange for a cut of the revenue the machine takes in. They also said that the manufacturer pays out the jackpot. During the show, one of the casino managers was interviewed on the floor and he seemed to know (or feel, I'm not sure) that the jackpot was going to be hit very soon. Sometime during the show, I recall the jackpot was paid out. Honestly I don't know if the show was dramatizing the manager's knowledge. Unfortunately, I don't have any references at this time and I'll have to look for them after work.

Tim Reddy
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  • Just to clarify, are you looking for an answer as it applies to a specific country or a general one? – rjzii Apr 11 '12 at 02:52
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    I'd like to see a citation for the first sentence. "the manufacturer of the slot machine is on the hook for any jackpot the machine pays out." It seems to me either a manufacturer could make machines, pay casinos rent and accept the difference between payin and payout; or a casino could buy or lease machines and the casino bears the gambling P/L. But the latter just seems easier... – Paul Apr 11 '12 at 03:07
  • See wikipedia: binomial process for modelling the number of successes when a low probability event is repeated independently http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution – Paul Apr 11 '12 at 03:11
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    In the case of the one-arm bandit there should be some mechanical influence on the outcome, making it not just a pseudo-random result. I agree with @Paul that a citation to display the notability of this claim would be very nice. As it stands, it looks like just an idea you came up with. I would be surprised that such a notification before the jackpot would be even legal, or the use of only a PRNG without any external influence. – Martin Scharrer Apr 11 '12 at 09:57
  • Agreed with @Paul, I'd like to see a citation. Actually, I've read stories of casinos sometimes *not paying* on a slot machine win, claiming that it was a [technical error](http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070125/000836.shtml). – John C Apr 11 '12 at 11:54
  • @MartinScharrer - In the United States it is definitively not legal and most of the gambling boards have regulations on the books with regards to who sets the seed values on the machines. – rjzii Apr 11 '12 at 12:01
  • @Paul - I Think this is referring to the progressive slots that have one jackpot shared over many casinos. The casino's get a cut of what goes into these regardless of what comes out or any jackpot that must be paid. – Chad Apr 11 '12 at 12:44
  • I think we need a reference to the claim that the machine owner is aware that the jackpot is about to be hit as your question implies. Voting to close as not notable until it is. – Chad Apr 11 '12 at 12:46
  • @Paul/Chad: Yes, I am referring to progressive slots with million dollar jackpots. I clarified my question. – Tim Reddy Apr 11 '12 at 13:27
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    They absolutely do not know. The machines in use nowadays generate their numbers randomly using seeds from nano-second timers. So even if somebody hit the jackpot on the machine you just left on their very first spin in no way means that you would have won if you spun just one more time, unless you pressed the SPIN button at the exact nanosecond the other person did (virtually impossible). Also, common sense tells you that if they knew, then it is a no-brainer that they would exploit that knowledge to their advantage, so it has to be impossible for them to know. – Dunk Apr 11 '12 at 22:24
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    Additionally, any random number generator used on slot machines must be certified by the state that they are truly random and not tamperable. I believe they can prove the truly random part using mathematical analysis. The not tamperable part is harder to prove but a high degree of confidence can be obtained. – Dunk Apr 11 '12 at 22:29
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    Each jurisdiction varies on what sort of contracts are allowed. Indian casinos are subject to different rules than Nevada casinos which are different from other jurisdictions like say South Dakota Video Lottery or Atlantic Lottery Corp (in Canada). There isn't just one sort of contract. I wrote software for casino gaming machines and casino control systems for over 10 years. There is no way of predicting jackpot, the way the random number generators are managed and the way the machines are tested would preclude that from being possible. – Dan Haynes Apr 12 '12 at 22:01
  • The machines are tested multiple ways - independently there are consultants who do nothing but test distribution of numbers generated by the RNG and there are private and state run testing agencies who test the game play. The inspections guarantee the device pays out statistically, not periodically. Changing even a single byte in the program requires the software to be re-submitted for evaluation. There is no possible way for anyone to know when a jackpot will hit, the testing almost guarantees that. There have been gaffs programmed in but they're invariably discovered through play statistics. – Dan Haynes Apr 12 '12 at 22:11
  • Re: proving the RNG is "truly random" is not quite how it works. A computer can only generate pseudo-random numbers. What they test in a gaming device is that the RNG is deterministic. Normally the games use a linear-congruential RNG which is guaranteed to produce every number in the sequence. The RNG is only seeded once and the state of the RNG is preserved across restarts of the gaming machine. If it were seeded more than once or periodically it would be possible for some numbers - potentially numbers representing highest tier wins - to never be generated. – Dan Haynes Apr 12 '12 at 22:19
  • @Dan-I haven't worked on slot machines but I have a friend who does and we had a long discussion on this topic. The way you describe things, there is a fixed pattern and it can be predictable if you knew the pattern. I am very certain that my friend says that they use a nano-second timer in generating their random numbers which is based on when the button is pressed. This would mean that there is not a fixed sequence as you described. – Dunk Apr 13 '12 at 17:41
  • Sorry, missed your response. Yes, the RNGs do generate a fixed sequence of numbers. Given the same seed value, they produce the same sequence of numbers every time. The RNG is only seeded once. If it were re-seeded then there is no guarantee it would ever generate some winning combinations. It's not a security problem because it's 32 or 64 bit RNG. If only 32 bit, that's still 4B possible seed values (hence 4B sequences to choose from). You can't predict outcome unless you can identify which of those 4B it's on _and_ how the resulting value is mapped to cards/reels/balls. – Dan Haynes Jan 03 '13 at 22:19

2 Answers2

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It doesn't seem to be specifically forbidden, but only if the jackpot is fully deterministic, which would seem unwise.

The Nevada Gaming Statutes regulating slot machines state that the machine is allowed to communicate only for certain purposes:

  1. Remote access to a gaming device may only be granted for the following activities:

(a) Monitoring system health and performance;

(b) Scheduling operational gaming device functions such as downloading of content;

(c) Troubleshooting system issues;

(d) Performing inquiry-only functions such as viewing logs or generating reports

(e) Any other activity that is approved by the Chairman.

It could be argued that "system health and performance" could include the complete internal state of the machine. If the play were fully deterministic, that would seem to allow for the scenario you propose. But although software-based pseudo-random-number-generators (wikipedia) are deterministic, the results of the machine could be (and it would seem foolish not to) "salted" with impossible-to-predict inputs such as the millisecond at which the coin was dropped or the button pushed or what-have-you.

The random number generator itself is not allowed to be externally manipulated:

  1. The random number generator and random selection process must be impervious to influences from outside the device, including, but not limited to, electro-magnetic interference, electro-static interference, and radio frequency interference. A gaming device must use appropriate communication protocols to protect the random number generator and random selection process from influence by associated equipment which is conducting data communications with the gaming device. (Adopted: 9/89. Amended: 11/05; 11/17/05)
Larry OBrien
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I'm not an expert on this subject but I still feel this is just a myth. According to a famous book "The Art of Intrusion" by Kevin Mitnick, See Chapter 1 here, Nevada Gaming Commission, a governmental agency involved in the regulation of casinos throughout the state, which is responsible for administering regulations, granting licenses and ruling on disciplinary matters brought before it by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. A simple common sense says that if US (Nevada) has such governing body, then other countries (at least those where gambling is legal) also must have these type of government department for the safeguard of the players.

I have read about how such organization works and don't think that what you are saying is possible in any way. A special team of highly skilled programmers and architects do a thorough analysis of the assembly code (the code is a random number generator module) before the casino gets the licenses to buy a new machine.

However what may be possible is that, since manufacturer continues to use the same hardware/code combination for a long period of time, because of some obvious reason (see the quote from the book below), casino owner can easily figure out logic of RNG with the help of any one, or a combination, of a computer engineer, or a mathematician or the manufacturer itself.

Extract from the book

"Whenever a casino wants to buy a machine of a new design, the Las Vegas Gaming Commission has to study the programming and make sure it's designed so the payouts will be fair to the players. Getting a new design approved can be a lengthy process, so casinos tend to hold on to the older machines longer than you would expect. For the team, an older machine seemed likely to have outdated technology, which they hoped might be less sophisticated and easier to attack."

Hope this has helped !!!

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