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According to Scotty Kilmer, in his video, "The Truth About My Worsening Condition":

There is not enough electricity [currently] to charge the batteries of cars like Tesla that have lithium ion or lithium iron phosphate batteries. There would have to be something like six times as much electricity [generation as there currently is] being generated in the United States to get [electric] cars for everybody who is driving [fossil-fuel burning] cars.

For the purpose of eliminating claims that aren't made, I've added my own interpretation in brackets.

LShaver
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Evan Carroll
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  • Comments are not for extended discussion; this conversation has been [moved to chat](https://chat.stackexchange.com/rooms/133358/discussion-on-question-by-evan-carroll-is-it-true-that-there-is-not-enough-elect). –  Jan 20 '22 at 02:20

2 Answers2

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tl;dr: The claim is false. The claim is that there would need to be six times as much electric generation, but if all cars in 2019 had been electric, only 1.43 times (43%) more generation would have been needed to power them all. This was most likely within the capacity of the existing power system.


Internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) statistics, 2019

The claim is about the present day, but for this analysis I'm going to use 2019 data, the last full year before the pandemic started.

Per the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, in 2019 there were 276,491,174 registered vehicles in the U.S. (including both passenger and freight vehicles) which traveled a total of 3,261,772,000,000 miles.

Less than 2 million of these were EVs (source), which I'll treat as a rounding error. The table down below breaks them down by vehicle type. Buses and motorcycles are listed separately for some reason, but I lumped them together as "other" for completeness.

Electric vehicle (EV) data

Per the Electric Vehicle Database, the average passenger EV has a battery capacity of 59.3 kWh and a range of 196 miles (315 km).

Capacity estimates are harder to come by for heavy duty vehicles, as there aren't many of these on the road yet. However this recent Autoweek article looking at freight trucks mentions a range of capacities from 220 to 475 kWh, with a corresponding range of ranges from 125 to 250 miles. Using the data from the FHA, the average heavy duty vehicle would need to travel less than 100 miles per weekday:

300,050,000,000 mi / 13,085,643 vehicles / 261 weekdays = 88 mi/weekday/per vehicle

...so I'll use the low end of the battery capacity range.

The charging efficiency is also needed, as the amount of energy the vehicle uses to drive is less than what is required to charge it. 85% charging efficiency is a conservative estimate from Car and Driver.

How much energy would be needed?

Combining all the data, and calculating the total energy that would have been needed in 2019 to power these EVs:

Item Light duty Heavy duty Other All vehicles
Quantity 253,814,184 13,085,643 9,591,347 276,491,174
Miles per year 2,924,053,000,000 300,050,000,000 37,669,000,000 3,261,772,000,000
Battery (kWh) 59.3 220 220 na
Charger efficiency 85% 85% 85% 85%
Range (miles) 196 125 125 na
Total GWh 1,040,794 621,280 77,997 1,740,071

The energy is calculated as follows:

( miles traveled [mi] / range [mi] ) x ( capacity [kWh] / efficiency [%] ) = energy [kWh]

For light duty vehicles the efficiency works out to 0.36 kWh/mi (95 MPGe), or slightly worse than the U.S. Alternative Fuel Data Center's 2015 estimate of 0.32 kWh/mi (105 MPGe) for the fleet of EVs on the road at that time.

Assuming losses of 5% in transmission and distrubtion, the actual amount of generation required would have been 1,827,075 GWh.

Total electric generation in the U.S. in 2019 was 4,266,488 GWh per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, meaning that a total of 6,093,563 GWh would have been needed to meet the EV demand in addition to the existing demand.

Thus, if every vehicle in 2019 had been an EV, only 1.43 times (43%) more electric energy would have been needed, not six times (500%) more.


Going a bit beyond the scope of the question...

Was that much energy feasible?

The generation at any given time is matched to the load, so the real question is whether the higher load could have been met, which is a function of total generator capacity.

Ignoring intermittent resources such as solar, wind, and pumped hydro, the total dispatchable capacity in 2019 was 917 GW, with a theoretical ability to generate a total of 8,033,064 GWh (assuming 24x7 operation). This is a conservative estimate using the net summer capacity, which is lower as thermal plants (coal, natural gas, and nuclear) are less efficient when ambient temperatures are higher.

The intermittent energy sources generated 483,826 GWh in 2019, meaning the dispatchable sources would have needed to generate 6,093,563 - 483,826 = 5,609,737 GWh total. This equates to keeping them running 69.8% of the time, compared to 47.1% without the EV load, or an extra 5.5 hours every day.

Is it feasible to run these power sources 70% of the time? In 2014, the EIA began publishing capacity factor data, and produced this chart:

Monthly capacity factors for select fuels and technologies, from the EIA

Nuclear, coal, and natural gas -- the key technologies used in the U.S. to generate power on demand -- do appear capable of operating 70% of the time at least based on the monthly data. However, this would likely be costly and challenging due to the reduced time for maintenance and upkeep.

And of course, none of this considers fuel availability, but at the very least there'd be lots of extra gasoline and diesel available to run power plants, and many plants in the U.S. can actually switch from natural gas to petroleum.

What about charging all of those batteries?

There is some discussion in the comments about the challenge of electric demand for charging -- i.e., if everyone plugs in their EV to charge at the same time, could the grid handle it? Probably not, but as long as we're magically replacing all cars in 2019 with EVs, why not magically supply them with smart chargers as well? The average vehicle drove about 32 miles per day; with a (magically supplied) level 2 charger, that would require an hour or less to charge each day. Smart chargers which monitor price signals and utility commands could easily ensure all vehicles were fully charged when needed without overloading the grid.

Evan Carroll
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LShaver
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    I checked the numbers twice but even I'm a bit skeptical of this answer, so please double-check my math. – LShaver Jan 16 '22 at 05:23
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    The numbers are a bit different, but Forbes recently came to the same conclusion: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2021/11/13/electricity-grids-can-handle-electric-vehicles-easily--they-just-need-proper-management/?sh=6768f8f97862 – Mark Jan 16 '22 at 06:18
  • "Back-of-the-envelope" calculations laden with assumptions? Coal and natural gas have a future? – Weather Vane Jan 16 '22 at 08:09
  • Weather, in theory if carbon and pollution capture is used, they could have a future. Once you isolate the point of usage for fossil fuels it becomes easier to directly capture things like green house gases. Current estimates put the price increase per kW to be pretty high though (US Department of Energy stated 50%), but that potentially can be reduced in time. – Jarrod Christman Jan 16 '22 at 15:37
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    I recently read that the FF industry is a major consumer of electricity, which would be freed up in a transition from FF. – Keith McClary Jan 16 '22 at 18:08
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    @WeatherVane are there specific assumptions you're concerned with? Also, the claim is about a hypothetical present day, so the long-term prospects of coal and natural gas aren't relevant. – LShaver Jan 16 '22 at 20:23
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    Why do you use battery capacity, range, and charging efficiency instead of MPGe? The latter combines all three and is directly reported/regulated by the EPA. Also, the 1.41 in the first paragraph is far more precision than is justified by this rough approximation... – benrg Jan 17 '22 at 06:36
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    @Mark Indeed the Forbes figures are a bit lower; in part perhaps because they only deal with private cars (the biggest chunk of the issue) rather than all road vehicles. It certainly supports a number in the same ballpark. – user_1818839 Jan 17 '22 at 14:07
  • @WeatherVane Natural gas certainly has a short term future. The US is still in the "Dash for Gas" phase (away from coal) which the UK saw in the 1990s, while the UK is entering the phase where gas is the backup for still, cloudy days (like today). This will IMO last a while, tailing off as wind/solar are overbuilt and storage picks up. (Scotland announced 25GW new offshore wind leases just this morning) – user_1818839 Jan 17 '22 at 14:14
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    @nitsua60 No. 1.74 PWh (petawatt-hours = million GWh) is needed to power all vehicles fully electric, assuming they are all BEVs (hydrogen fuel cell would be a different calculation). The US is consuming 4.26 PWh per year as per the cited source which totals to around 6 PWh or ~40% more than currently needed - *everything included*. – YetiCGN Jan 17 '22 at 15:48
  • @benrg MPGe didn't occur to me, but I did find a weighted average for 2015 EVs on the road which I added. Also the units are annoying. Re: 1.41, that's only three [significant figures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Significant_figures), so should be fine given the precision of the source values used in the calculation. – LShaver Jan 17 '22 at 15:50
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    It may be worth considering that all these energy requirements are probably not spread out evenly during the day (and possibly week or year). People probably want to charge their vehicles all at the same time (when they get home). The difficulty in engineering is often not so much averages, but peaks. – jcaron Jan 17 '22 at 17:29
  • @YetiCGN Got it--thank you. – nitsua60 Jan 17 '22 at 17:39
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    @jcaron people like me probably want to charge their vehicles when power is cheapest, which happens when demand is lowest.. There are domestic tariffs and remotely switched meters that allow that, at least since the 1970s in the UK (don't know about the US) but it can't be too hard to adapt them to EV use. – user_1818839 Jan 17 '22 at 18:32
  • You might add to the TLDR that we can generate that energy today simply by running the power plants later into the evening. – Harper - Reinstate Monica Jan 17 '22 at 19:44
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    @jcaron: +1. It's not enough to simply look at energy amount and think that the PWh required for EVs will be evenly distributed during the week. Before writing "tl;dr: No.", one should definitely make sure that peaks are not too high. And while loading EVs, peaks can be *huge*. 3.7 million cars charging at [250kW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger) at the same time would already exceed the dispatchable capacity. Also, the position of EVs isn't evenly distributed either. The grid would be glowing red hot in many locations. – Eric Duminil Jan 18 '22 at 10:08
  • @user_1818839: You do plan on using your car from time to time, right? And you won't be able to charge it while riding it, so you'll have to charge it when you can, which probably won't be when the power is the cheapest. And you cannot be very flexible when you need to charge a ~100kWh battery. You need both a large amount of power and you need it for a long time. – Eric Duminil Jan 18 '22 at 10:14
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    Very thorough answer! However, your TL;DR answer to OP's question should say **YES** - `Is it true that there is not enough electricity to power all vehicles in the United States if they were electric?`. You have shown that the proportion quoted is wrong, but the claim is correct – Matt Jan 18 '22 at 11:44
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    @EricDuminil I'm not usually driving between 1 and 6am, so that's rarely a problem. Of course there will be times when roadtripping, you have to fill up when you can at whatever price you can get, but that's not the common case for most people. – user_1818839 Jan 18 '22 at 13:17
  • @Matt which part of the claim? there are certainly challenges to providing enough electricity to all those cars, but I believe this answer demonstrates that the supply is sufficient. – LShaver Jan 18 '22 at 15:55
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    @Matt The complete answer is "No, with caveats"; the second half of the answer showed that, most likely, we could have generated that much power with current generating capacity. We don't use nearly all of our generating capacity, but that's not unexpected. – Joe Jan 18 '22 at 18:51
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    @EricDuminil In this fantasy world (also known as 2050, perhaps?), the smart chargers would use their networked capabilities to charge at different times. Just like now we have things set in some areas where the electrical company can literally control your air conditioning, we could easily let them control when we charge our car (given a range of time, say, 11pm-5am, requires 2 hours "on"). Right now that's not needed - but we do have "peak demand" times and "low demand" times, and EV owners set to charge during "low demand" times (ie, 11pm-5am). – Joe Jan 18 '22 at 18:54
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    I would expect the electric generation of 4,300,00 GWh to represent the sum of power factory production and 1,700,000 GWh to represent vehicle needs. Yet since vehicles do not re-charge at the power factory, distribution and transmission losses need to be factored in: maybe [4-9%](http://insideenergy.org/2015/11/06/lost-in-transmission-how-much-electricity-disappears-between-a-power-plant-and-your-plug/)? – chux - Reinstate Monica Jan 18 '22 at 21:39
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    @chux-ReinstateMonica that's a good thought. Per the EIA, it's [5% in the U.S.](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=105&t=3). Honestly though given all the other assumptions in this calc it's probably just a rounding error -- it pushes that 41% up to 43%, but I was conservative in a few other assumptions. – LShaver Jan 18 '22 at 22:37
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    LShaver, fair enough. Yet not only does energy production need a step up of 41-43% more, there is also a similar need in the distribution grid's capacity and related infrastructure. – chux - Reinstate Monica Jan 18 '22 at 22:49
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    "total dispatchable is really not a good measure. That's going to include all the expensive backups, etc. You also have a much harder question on whether the distribution network (the grid) can keep up. And both are highly dependent on specifics of the load. You're about right on the order of magnitude though; even if it's double, you're still looking at a problem analogous to "we need to add another wing on the building", not "we need to invent the skyscraper". – fectin Jan 18 '22 at 23:21
  • @chux-ReinstateMonica I did end up editing it in, mostly out of curiosity, and to fix a couple other typos. – LShaver Jan 19 '22 at 00:24
  • @EricDuminil There are ideas out there to use the EVs batteries as a distributed buffer for the whole net. Usually, you'd leave an EV connected to the grid for longer than it takes to charge it, so it could buffer energy from the grid, allowing for more intermittent energy sources (like wind and solar) while lessening the need for other grid storage techniques. All you, as a user, have to add to your parking routine is to tell the vehicle when you will need it again at the earliest. – orithena Jan 19 '22 at 12:53
  • @orithena: Yes. I've read this proposal many times. AFAIK, it hasn't been used yet. Where I live (in Germany), it's not just a technical problem but a financial and a legal one. People would basically need to create a whole company just to sell a few kWh. They'd be official electricity suppliers. – Eric Duminil Jan 19 '22 at 13:16
  • @Joe: Yes. It's basically like playing Tetris and trying to pack as many shapes as possible inside a given rectangle. The width is the duration, the height is the load and the area the total energy. It makes sense for other appliances, because they have different shapes, but not a large area, and have either larger peaks or need to be on for a long time. But EVs have large peaks and need to be charging for a long time, so there's not much which can be done when millions of people need dozens of kWhs, even when spread out during the night. – Eric Duminil Jan 19 '22 at 13:22
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    @EricDuminil iirc packing shapes into an area is NP-hard, thus nigh impossible to have an optimal solution computationally. Although I'd be surprised if a decently "near-optimal" solution didn't exist. – jaskij Jan 19 '22 at 18:36
  • @JanDorniak: Yes. A perfect solution cannot be found anyway, since it would rely on a perfect forecast of both future load and electricity generation. The goal of load management and smart charging is to avoid the worst case of every EV starting to charge at full power as soon as they come back from work. – Eric Duminil Jan 19 '22 at 18:43
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    @EricDuminil I agree. It might be too trusting of people, but a decent first approximation would probably be people just dialing in charging time and the car simply charging all that time with reduced rate. So instead of two hours at 250kW, they do ten hours at 50kW. Heck, my phone has a feature where it automatically optimizes for night charging, to have 90% charge as the user wakes up. Of course such a system would be trivial to abuse. – jaskij Jan 19 '22 at 19:01
  • @JanDorniak: EVs have about 100kWh as largest batteries, so, when empty, require 10h at 10kW, or 24min at 250kW. The problem is that 10kW is already a huge load, which isn't seen in typical households. Water heaters might require more power, but only for the duration of a shower. And 250kW of electricity is quite simply a ridiculous load. – Eric Duminil Jan 19 '22 at 19:29
  • @EricDuminil I pulled the numbers out of thin air for the sake of an example, should have probably said so. As for water heaters... a typical tankless heater is rated somewhere between 15 to 30 kW. That said, with modern electronically controlled tankless heaters I doubt they use full power even during a shower. – jaskij Jan 19 '22 at 20:09
  • @EricDuminil You're assuming the way we "charge" our cars won't change from ICE to BEV. But there will be a huge paradigm shift where you won't drive your car until it has 50 km of range left and then charge it to 100% as fast as you can. Instead BEV drivers will charge when it's convenient and there's a plug nearby. Go to the supermarket, plug in you car during your stay. Boom, 11 KWh in half an hour meaning 55 km range recharged. Or just stay 15 minutes and get 27.5 km range back. The average car (in the US) does 60 km/day. Cars are stationary 96% of the time. Plenty opportunities to charge. – YetiCGN Jan 20 '22 at 07:43
  • @EricDuminil Additionally, a BEV isn't even capable of drawing the maximum amount of power at any point. You need a low state of charge, a pre-heated battery and then 250 kW are possible for any singular vehicle for a matter of minutes before the SoC is too high and the battery management in the car throttles charging. See for example https://insideevs.de/photo/5822534/model-3-v3-supercharger-test-bildquelle-insideevs-usa/ – YetiCGN Jan 20 '22 at 07:48
  • @fectin "we need to invent the skyscraper". There are other constraints, though, e.g. climate change. 60% of the US electricity production comes from fossil fuels, and the sooner those 60% are gone, the better. We won't need to invent the skyscraper, but a more pedestrian and bicycle friendly urban planning would be a very good start. It's not sustainable to need a car for the most basic needs, as is the case in most US cities. Regardless how the car is powered. – Eric Duminil Jan 20 '22 at 11:22
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No, about 40 to 60%

Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles currently use 146 billion gallons of gasoline used each year annually. A gallon of gasoline represents about 33 kWh of energy. So all the ICE vehicles are burning about 4.8 million gigawatt-hours in their tanks.

The US currently produces about 4.2 million GWh of electricity annually.

The claim supposes that EVs would need to be delivered six times the energy as ICE cars. That is tank/plug-to-wheel EVs would have to be six times less efficient than ICE vehicles.

Instead, EVs are about 2 to 3 times more tank/plug-to-wheel efficient than ICE vehicles meaning a switch to EVs would require somewhere between 1.6 and 2.4 million GWh more electricity than the 4.2 million GWh currently produced. LShaver estimated 1.7 million GWh would be needed for EVs, so we're in the ballpark.

This is closer to 40% to 60% increase in electrical production.

While this looks like we'll be using more power, since EVs are more efficient tank and well-to-wheel (see References) this increase in electricity consumption represents a significant decrease in overall US energy usage.

This assuming we switch to EVs and nothing else changes, which brings us to the claim's fallacies.

Counter Factual Fallacies

This brings us to question the significance of the claim. The implication of the claim, and many like it, that it would take so many more resources to switch to EVs. But to go from the claim to the conclusion requires the counter-factual fallacy: we'll change one thing but everything else will remain the same.

We'd use less energy generating electricity with the oil

A common fallacy in these arguments is to only present the resources and infrastructure needed for EVs for shock value, but fail to compare them to what ICE vehicles are currently using. If we switched to EVs we would no longer be using the resources for ICE. So long as the EVs use less than ICE, it's a win.

We would no longer be burning 146 billion gallons of gasoline in cars. In the worst case, the oil to produce the gasoline could instead be burned to produce electricity. Generating electricity from oil is inefficient, the US no longer relies on oil for electricity, but let's say we did.

enter image description here

A Battery EV (BEV) running on electricity generated by a conventional oil plant is "FOEL1". An ICE vehicle is "COG1 DISI" (Conventional Gasoline Direct Injection Spark Ignition).

We wouldn't do this, but even if we did we'd save energy and emissions.

We couldn't do this, the US has minimal existing capacity to generate electricity from oil. The claim doesn't explain how we magically switch to EVs tomorrow, I figure it's only fair I don't explain how we magically build oil fired generators tomorrow.

We're not going to switch to EVs tomorrow

The claim is trying to use the current numbers for electricity generation for a change which will take quite some time. Electrification of the US vehicle fleet will take decades. During that time the markets will react, fuel and power industries will react, infrastructure will adapt, our energy mix will change, and EVs will change and likely become even more efficient.

There's no harm in asking how much electricity we'd need if we magically switched to EVs tomorrow, it's a useful data point for perspective. However, for the claim to have significance with regard to electrification it would have to take into account these reactions. One of the major advantages of electrification is that EVs can adapt to changes in how we get energy much better than ICE vehicles. To ignore that is disingenuous.

References

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  • The last paragraph contains two claims needing a source. **1)** Burning oil in a power generator is more efficient and less polluting than burning it in a car **2)** EVs are more efficient [than ICE I assume] –  Jan 16 '22 at 20:16
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    From the answer, I don't see the justification of the conclusion *"if we switched to EVs tomorrow we'd be using a fraction of what we're burning right now more efficiently and with less pollution."* Or I misunderstand. Are you saying less oil product only, not less total energy output? –  Jan 16 '22 at 20:17
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    Is that the raw energy content of gasoline, or the amount that can realistically be extracted according to Carnot's theorem? – user253751 Jan 16 '22 at 21:50
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    @fredsbend: I don't think anyone who puts any reasonable effort into research would dispute that systems that most effectively remove pollutants from exhaust gases are too big to be practical within a car. Ditto systems to enhance an engine's efficiency by extracting as much energy as possible from waste heat in the exhaust. A cite to show whether those befits of static engines are sufficient to overcome electrical transmission costs would be helpful, but car design involves efficiency trade-offs that aren't required for static engine design, implying the latter are at least somewhat better. – supercat Jan 16 '22 at 22:52
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    @fredsbend Sources added and tweaked the answer to avoid drifting away from the claim. – Schwern Jan 17 '22 at 02:50
  • Don't forget about diesel! – LShaver Jan 17 '22 at 03:22
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    A full well-to-wheel analysis would be beneficial though, because although a BEV is already much more efficient when comparing tank-to-wheel efficiency, ICE really loses the game when you take into the equation the energy required to move the fuel into the car: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/a/45538/52788 – YetiCGN Jan 17 '22 at 15:52
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    *that fuel could instead be burned to produce electricity* - could it be burned, converted, transmitted and stored (in a BEV) sufficiently more efficiently that it would achieve an overall saving/higher efficiency than an ICE? – Caius Jard Jan 17 '22 at 17:41
  • Continue the discussion [in chat](https://chat.stackexchange.com/rooms/133319/discussion-on-answer-by-schwern-is-it-true-that-there-is-not-enough-electricity). Leave the comments space for clarification and improving the answer. Comments suggestions that have been addressed will be deleted. –  Jan 18 '22 at 17:17
  • @CaiusJard Yes, I've added references. – Schwern Jan 18 '22 at 21:01
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    @YetiCGN I found a good reference and made a stronger point. – Schwern Jan 18 '22 at 21:01
  • EIA may be a better source for [annual gasoline](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_a_EPM0F_VPP_mbbl_a.htm) and [distillate fuel oil (diesel)](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_a_EPD0_VPP_mbbl_a.htm), though values are in barrels instead of gallons. – LShaver Jan 19 '22 at 05:18
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    "Gigawatt hours" should be written "GWh", not "gWh". – Eric Duminil Jan 19 '22 at 10:22