Does Havana Syndrome exist?

Question

The US House of Representatives recently passed a bill to help diplomats and officials that have been impacted by 'Havana Syndrome'. This legislation has already passed the Senate, and since signed into law by Biden.

According to The NY Times:

Since 2016, diplomats, intelligence officers and military personnel in Asia, Europe and the Americas have reported hearing strange sounds, feeling unexplained heat or experiencing pressure and then suffering headaches, nausea, vertigo or other symptoms. In many cases, the symptoms have gone on for months or years.

While some government officials are convinced that a hostile intelligence service using an eavesdropping device or a directed-energy weapon is responsible for the injuries, C.I.A. analysts have not reached a conclusion about what is causing the episodes or if a hostile power is responsible.

Directed energy weapons that, once exposed, cause lingering mental health problems for years? And it's happening all over the world, but no one knows who's doing it or if it's even physically possible? This sounds like a bad action movie premise.

What does the evidence say about the existence of Havana Syndrome?

Update March 1 2023: Washington Post reports that it is "very unlikely" that these symptoms were caused by an enemy wielding a secret weapon:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/01/havana-syndrome-intelligence-report-weapon/

This question is probably a duplicate of [an earlier one from 2017](https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/39189/do-inaudible-sonic-weapons-exist) that, unfortunately, didn't really see a properly sourced answer. For what it's worth, there's also a Wikipedia article on ['Havana syndrome'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havana_syndrome). — Schmuddi, Oct 04 '21 at 20:09
Probably difficult to answer unless before/after brain scans would have fortuitously been taken and show something significant. Otherwise replicating such experiments on purpose would definitely be unethical, assuming they even have some idea what the "directed energy weapon" was. There is one imaging study that however used other people as controls https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6652163/ — Fizz, Oct 04 '21 at 23:55
Unfortunately such between-groups studies belong to a kind that's pretty controversial in terms of "inflated false-positive rates" https://www.pnas.org/content/113/28/7900 — Fizz, Oct 05 '21 at 00:03
And even same-subject studies can have issues https://www.wired.com/2009/09/fmrisalmon/ — Fizz, Oct 05 '21 at 00:15
This question is hindered by the meta-level question: What does it mean for a syndrome to exist? Just the correlation of some symptoms? — Oddthinking, Oct 05 '21 at 01:29
The likelihood that it's a US device in use in US embassies and missions which causes the issue inadvertently (by "leaking" electromagnetic or ultrasonic waves in some circumstances) is probably not nil. So there are really two different questions: (a) Does the syndrome actually exist? And (b) what actually causes it? — jcaron, Oct 05 '21 at 14:04
There is a slight mis-match between the title and the body. There are two layers to this a) does Havana syndrome exist (i.e. are there people experiencing physiological symptoms), and b) was it caused by a directed energy weapon. It might be useful to resolve/clarify the scope of this question — Dave, Oct 05 '21 at 16:05
@jcaron And the answer to the first of those seems to be fairly trivially "yes," while the latter doesn't even seem to be known to U.S. intelligence, so seems rather unlikely to find an answer here. As for the possibility of it being a U.S. device, it's true enough that the probability isn't zero, but it seems rather unlikely that such a device would be installed in a [Moscow hotel room](https://www.gq.com/story/cia-investigation-and-russian-microwave-attacks) by the U.S. The cases being mostly just in non-friendly countries also tends to weigh against that. — reirab, Oct 05 '21 at 16:52
@jcaron Also, if the U.S. had indeed installed a device that might be the source of the problem in a hotel room in Moscow where a covert CIA operative was staying, the operative probably would have known that as he would have probably been the only one in a position to put it there. — reirab, Oct 05 '21 at 16:54
@reirab the theory I’m floating is that the device is not intended to do harm, but that it could be an involuntary side effect (think mobile phone suddenly pumping 100 times the power it should, for instance), possibly only in certain circumstances or in combination with another device. You would think they would have found out something like that given the number of incidents, but sometimes such side effects are difficult to pinpoint. — jcaron, Oct 05 '21 at 18:42
@jcaron Yes, I understand, but my point was that, if that were the case, it seems rather unlikely that they would have installed such a device in a Moscow hotel room and, even if they had, the agent in that case would have known about it and suspected it as the problem. It's not impossible, but it seems extremely unlikely. Plus, if it were placed there by the U.S. and not intended to do harm, then it would most likely be showing up in friendly countries, too, not just a handful of particularly unfriendly ones. — reirab, Oct 05 '21 at 18:48
@reirab don’t think you would need to “install” such a device. Think phone or other communication device, encryption device, computer, anti-snooping systems… and it happened quite a lot in Vienna, and there are cases in Berlin, London and even Washington, DC. — jcaron, Oct 05 '21 at 22:01
@jcaron There isn't really any mechanism by which a communications, encryption, etc. device could cause such effects. Sonic/ultrasonic seems more than likely. At any rate, though, if the device were of U.S. origin, it would have been pretty easy to correlate it to the symptoms. While there are sonic/ultrasonic devices used to mask sounds to prevent eavesdropping, again, were such a device in use, this would have been known by the people affected and it would have been easy to correlate its use to the symptoms. — reirab, Oct 06 '21 at 01:51
The best part about this is that if it *is* caused by EM weapons, the best protection against conspiracy might finally be ye old [tin foil hat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tin_foil_hat)! — svidgen, Oct 06 '21 at 18:19

Keith McClary · Answer 1 · 2021-10-04T20:25:43.223

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Are Directed-Energy Weapons Behind the Havana Syndrome?

In 2020, a study on Havana syndrome by the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine concluded that the more than 130 victims experienced some real physical phenomena, and that the cause was most likely some form of electromagnetic radiation.
...
Perhaps the best option to prevent further attack is detection. It is relatively simple and inexpensive to install sensors to detect electromagnetic waves on buildings and vehicles. Such sensors could also help identify the location of the source of the attacks and, in this way, act as a deterrent.

The writer does not say why this simple and inexpensive option has not been tried.

edited Oct 04 '21 at 20:25

answered Oct 04 '21 at 20:17

Keith McClary

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Could be sonic rather than electromagnetic. – George White Oct 05 '21 at 05:11
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FTWT, there is a book by seemingly reputable neurology authors calling it "mass psychogenic illness" https://books.google.com/books/about/Havana_Syndrome.html?id=2AjYDwAAQBAJ – Fizz Oct 05 '21 at 05:30
@GeorgeWhite: almost certainly not (sonic). Based on the first dozen pages in that book, there are no known sonic phenomena that cause long-term effects... short of a shockwave from a 500-lbs bomb and the like, which can't be remotely stealthy. – Fizz Oct 05 '21 at 05:46
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So, is there a high chance that it's a nocebo effect? – vsz Oct 05 '21 at 06:02
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So basically it exists in the same way as the [Gulf War syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_syndrome) exists, i.e. bunch of people have some symptoms. As for the cause... we still don't know much about the Gulf one after decades of research. – Fizz Oct 05 '21 at 06:04
I wonder why a state would want to randomly zap diplomats. – Abdullah Oct 05 '21 at 06:57
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@Abdullah any number of reasons, from "payback for those pesky sanctions" to "accidental side-effect of our crude eavesdropping equipment" – user253751 Oct 05 '21 at 08:58
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@user253751: given that first cases [were](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58396698) CIA officers, you'd have to wonder whose equipment, unless their cover was blown. – Fizz Oct 05 '21 at 10:50
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One has to wonder if the US [couldn't make](https://www.nature.com/articles/489198a) a useable weapon with microwaves... who can. Apparently one that has any effect on people is the size of a utility vehicle. – Fizz Oct 05 '21 at 11:12
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FWTW, the CIA guys haven't been exactly silent on this https://www.gq.com/story/cia-investigation-and-russian-microwave-attacks – Fizz Oct 05 '21 at 12:10
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@Fizz - Along a similar line, if the ailments are caused by intentional directed-energy weapons, one has to wonder why the USA intelligence community seems uncertain about what caused them. If a country like Russia or China already has such a weapon in working condition, one would think that US investigations would at least not be far behind, and there would be little mystery about it. For that matter, why only target US diplomats when there are other enemy countries, much more important US politicians, and even substantial military applications? – Obie 2.0 Oct 05 '21 at 14:41
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That is, a country's government develops an innovative electromagnetic weapon, and is willing to use it against diplomats (and according to at least one allegation, in the US capital itself), but does not try anything against *any* really important officials? – Obie 2.0 Oct 05 '21 at 14:48
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@Obie2.0 If we assume that it is caused by some weapon, one reason I can see why they didn't target more important people is simply a "test run": Does it work? How long until detection? How accurate? How does the affected country react? Can they identify the weapon? Especially the latter two can't really be tested in-country. – Katai Oct 05 '21 at 15:13
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@Obie2.0 - just speculating here, obviously, but I can sort of see that using such a thing against CIA operatives would be considered part of the rough and tumble of espionage; using it against diplomats and civil servants would be an act of outright (if sneaky) hostility; but using it against high-level, elected representatives of government would almost certainly be considered an act of war. I have literally nothing to back that up, but it makes sort-of-sense to me. – Spratty Oct 05 '21 at 15:41
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*"The writer does not say why this simple and inexpensive option has not been tried."* - Presumably because fitting such a detection device to every single building and vehicle that an operative could be using in a foreign jurisdiction is neither inexpensive nor feasible. – JBentley Oct 05 '21 at 16:14
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@JBentley At least for most things like embassies and such, EM detection devices are already fitted. I know because I write firmware for them. But, of course, whether that would detect whatever this is would depend on, well, what it is. In particular, whether it's within the frequency range of the detection devices if it's EM. (The existing EM detection devices are mostly for detecting radio transmissions, i.e. to detect bugging devices.) – reirab Oct 05 '21 at 16:41
@reirab Yes, I accept the premise that for *one* building it is inexpensive and feasible. My point was that an operative in another country doesn't just stay in one building, and you can't expect to equip every possible building that they might enter with such a device. The alleged hostile agent presumably isn't going to limit themselves to only attacks which work on embassies, so securing only that isn't going to be much of a deterrent as claimed in the quoted article. – JBentley Oct 05 '21 at 17:44
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@JBentley but they have allegedly targeted embassises, and primarily in states with known levels of hostility. I work with microwaves in a lab, detection of such allegedly powerful signals would be absolutely trivial within the budgets of these agencies for a dozen buildings. I wouldn't be surprised if a well-located and well-off ham radio guy could detect the reflections off a building, if they existed. It makes no sense to me why they would publicly allege such things if they didn't already have this evidence to show. – llama Oct 05 '21 at 18:43
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@llama According to Wikipedia, they have targetted *embassy staff*, not *embassies* per se. For example, the main photo on that page states "The Hotel Nacional in Havana is one of the locations where the syndrome occurred". You say that it would be trivial for a dozen buildings, but you're forgetting that the US government doesn't own or control most of those buildings in a foreign jurisdiction. That's why I referred to feasibility as well as cost. Are you going to add detection equipment to every hotel, restaurant, and coffee shop in the locality of the embassy? – JBentley Oct 05 '21 at 19:37
@jbentley honestly you could fit something in a briefcase to do it pretty easily. Not cheap enough for everyone to carry one with them, but surely at least one would pick it up pretty quickly – llama Oct 05 '21 at 21:05

score 9 · Answer 2 · answered Oct 06 '21 at 15:19

Maybe. Opinions differ and the evidence is inconsistent.

BBC News has recently produced a radio documentary about this, I've summarised it below (although it's worth listening to the audio, it's interesting).

At least some of the claimed instances are likely psychogenic or have 'normal' causes (eg food poisoning):

Some instances may be unrelated. "We had a bunch of military folk in the Middle East who claimed to have this attack - turned out they had food poisoning," says one former official. "We need to separate the wheat from the chaff," reckons Mark Zaid, who says members of the public, some with mental health issues, approach him claiming to suffer from microwave attacks. One former official reckons around half the cases reported by US officials are possibly linked to attacks by an adversary. Others say the real number could be even smaller.

A December 2020 report from the US National Academies of Sciences concluded that evidence exists to support the existence of 'Havana Syndrome':

A December 2020 report by the US National Academies of Sciences was a pivotal moment. Experts took evidence from scientists and clinicians as well as eight victims. ... The panel looked at psychological and other causes, but concluded that directed, high energy, pulsed microwaves were most likely responsible for some of the cases, similar to the view of James Lin, who gave evidence.  

But the US State Department, which sponsored the report, considers it 'only a plausible hypothesis':

But even though the State Department sponsored the study, it still considers the conclusion only a plausible hypothesis and officials say they have not found further evidence to support it.

New evidence is emerging:

The BBC has learnt that new evidence is arriving as data is collected and analysed more systematically for the first time. Some of the cases this year showed specific markers in the blood, indicating brain injury. These markers fall away after a few days and previously too much time had elapsed to spot them. But now that people are being tested much more quickly after reporting symptoms, they have been seen for the first time.  

The answer may be complex and multi-faceted:

The debate remains divisive and it is possible the answer is complex. There may be a core of real cases, while others have been folded into the syndrome. Officials raise the possibility that the technology and the intent might have changed over time, perhaps shifting to try and unsettle the US. Some even worry one state may have piggy-backed on another's activities. "We like a simple label diagnosis," argues Professor Relman. "But sometimes it is tough to achieve. And when we can't, we have to be very careful not to simply throw up our hands and walk away."

Source: ‘Havana syndrome ’ and the mystery of the microwaves, Gordon Corera, BBC News, 9 September 2021

See also: The mystery of Havana syndrome (27 mins audio, documentary podcast from BBC News), 9 September 2021

See also https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/21/what-is-havana-syndrome-us-cuba-cia-burns/ — A E, Oct 09 '21 at 11:55

score 6 · Answer 3 · edited Oct 06 '21 at 20:02

Probably

Your question is pretty much exactly my reaction the first time I heard of this, especially "This sounds like a bad action movie premise". It is difficult to research objectively because different theories to explain the incidents implicate a different set of sources as unreliable. What I can say after some research is that, yes, this is a legit story, and no, it is not a crazy conspiracy theory where the editors of the NY Times made a mistake and published something that should have been in Weekly World News.

Other answers on this forum have already given good summaries of what evidence is out there with numerous sources.
All I would add is that, for a single source that is a detailed composite summary from a more reliable source than a public forum or Wikipedia, you should start with the assessment by the National Academy of Sciences (you can click "read online" without creating an account or purchasing anything):

An Assessment of Illness in U.S. Government Employees and Their Families at Overseas Embassies (2020)

Does Havana Syndrome exist?

3 Answers3