Over the past couple of years people have been claiming that storms are getting more severe in Australia. Some linking this to global warming.
Specifically Professor Ross Garnaut in the opening paragraph of his first in a series of eight updates of his landmark 2008 climate report says:
Extreme climatic events have become immediately more intense.
And in the 2011 update:
New observations of a changing climate include an increase in extreme weather events.
Severe storms will get worse: The Australian
But there is a general view among weather forecasters and climate scientists that, in the longer term, higher global temperatures will create the right conditions for more intense, but not more frequent, storms.
However, in a recent news article a Dr. Jorgen Frederiksen from the well respected CSIRO says:
Dr Jorgen Frederiksen from the the CSIRO says there has been a 50-year decrease in the average intensity of storms hitting Australia, a trend which is forecast to continue for another 50 years.
Furthermore:
The drop in winter and autumn rainfall observed across southern Australia is due to a large downturn in the intensity of storm formations over at least the last three decades compared with the previous three decades, and these effects have become more pronounced with time
Although it is not linked it mentions the research is from:
The findings come from recent CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology research.
Both of these seem contradictory to me, although this could be just my lack of understanding. I have not personally reviewed any figures, but the claims made in public seem to be clear.
So is one group incorrect or is it just the media taking things out of context?
