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During an interview yesterday with 6PR Mornings, Emeritus Professor Robert Clancy, an immunologist, claimed the following:

There are many, many countries around the world that now, everybody gets either Ivermectin and/or Hydroxychloroquine. And when they introduced these drugs as standard treatment the mortality just dropped. This is very well documented, and it's all on the web if you want to chase it. Countries like Brazil, some of the other South American countries, and now it's been introduced to some of the western countries, starting in Slovenia, just last week. And the American authorities are now changing their view, particularly with Ivermectin. The NIH has really re-looked at this.

Well, I definitely want to "chase" it, but when I looked for evidence for trials and case studies all I could find was evidence that these drugs were not effective in improving COVID-19 symptoms.

This guy was a senior immunologist, so I don't want to just discard what he's saying though. Where is this evidence he is referring to?

quant
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    Something to keep in mind here--this guy is retired and about 80. How relevant are his credentials at this point?? – Loren Pechtel Feb 05 '21 at 00:41
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    Also, correlation vs causation. Mortality sure dropped over the summer (in the northern hemisphere) etc. It may have dropped for completely different reasons. Thus Clancy's argument, even if true as stated, is largely irrelevant given the controlled studies which he's ignoring. – Fizz Feb 05 '21 at 01:02
  • I wonder if the down/close votes are because the title was edited. It now sounds like a more general hydroxychloroquine/Ivermectin question whereas what I really wanted to know was what that doctor was refering to. – quant Feb 05 '21 at 03:49
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    @quant: I think the edit improved the question. We can guess at what particular evidence Clancy was referring to and give feeble answers, or we can look for all the evidence and see whether he was right. – Oddthinking Feb 05 '21 at 15:21
  • How's your Portuguese? https://piaui.folha.uol.com.br/lupa/2020/07/06/verificamos-ivermectina-natal/ – Ben Bolker Feb 07 '21 at 01:14
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    So basically this dude just got on radio and made up a bunch of BS, effectively throwing his reputation and that of his uni under the bus? I mean, I'm not saying that's implausible but it makes me angry to think someone would abuse the respect their role affords them in that way. How is the public supposed to form a rational opinion on these topics when not even academics can be trusted... Gargh.. – quant Feb 07 '21 at 11:06
  • I don't think it's BS at all. There are indeed ivermectin rollouts in a bunch of countries. An answer linking to them has been deleted. I haven't seen a double blind study to prove causation — people have argued that given the scale of the pandemic such a study would be unethical. – Avery Feb 07 '21 at 18:53
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    @Avery then why isn't anyone providing links to reputable studies? That answer you're referring to linked to a YouTube video and some repository of studies, the few of which I samples having nothing to do with the topic. – quant Feb 07 '21 at 22:21
  • @Avery regarding the causality point, I don't think this question sets the bar that high. The doctor said that when these drugs were introduced the mortality rate "just dropped". At this point I'd settle for something at least showing that this correlation exists. – quant Feb 07 '21 at 22:26
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    @LorenPechtel: Fauci is also 80 years old and Biden is 78. What are you trying to imply? –  Feb 07 '21 at 23:42
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    @dodd Note the other part--he's retired. 80 and still working is different than 80 and retired. – Loren Pechtel Feb 08 '21 at 04:12
  • @LorenPechtel: You are not aware of the fact that in many countries people need to retire at 67? –  Feb 08 '21 at 04:14
  • @ewanc: The guy is an emeritus Professor. So all the research tools provided by his University to its faculty are available for him. I do not know him, but your claim that he is not "currently practicing" needs a proof. Otherwise it is a blatant insult. You seem to be saying that Professors in Europe, Australia and the US older than 67 are not "practicing". –  Feb 08 '21 at 11:37
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    @dodd doesn't the "Emeritus" title mean he's retired and therefore not practicing? – quant Feb 08 '21 at 11:54
  • @quant: Emeritus means a special status for a retired Professor. In particular, all research facilities, even labs and an office space are available for an Emeritus Professor. The only things missing are teaching, committees, and salary (replaced by the pension). Most Professors do not stop research after retirement. In fact they have more time for research then. –  Feb 08 '21 at 12:12
  • @ewanc: The point of retiring at 67 is that people are **forced** to retire at 67. It has nothing to do with the ability to do research or anything else. So assuming or guessing that the person is not active just because he has retired is wrong and insulting to many. –  Feb 08 '21 at 14:49
  • @dodd I don't think anyone is saying he's inactive. Just that he's retired. This seems like a storm in a teacup.. – quant Feb 09 '21 at 06:15
  • @quabt: I was responding to a comment saying that his opinion does nor matter because he is 80 and retired. In particular it was asked "How relevant are his credentials at this point?" –  Feb 09 '21 at 08:07
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    This is absolutely not true for Brazil, as mortality rates are still going _up_. Both of those medications were introduced very early and did absolutely nothing to hold the advance of the disease. – T. Sar Feb 14 '21 at 02:22
  • @T.Sar: the thing is that in this question it's not even clear what "mortality" means. Is it deaths from Covid over some unit of time? (And over what period? One can cherry pick the period and region of "prove" anything.) Or is it the CFR, or the IFR? etc. Answers below are equally handwavy, "links only" basically--Q drops. – Fizz Feb 15 '21 at 10:26
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    "it's all on the web if you want to chase it" is one of those "do your research, sheeple" pointers. Anyone who says that is not a notable source, surely? – RedSonja Feb 17 '21 at 12:00

2 Answers2

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Kind of a rough answer to verify the statement here:

...when they introduced these drugs as standard treatment the mortality just dropped. This is very well documented, and it's all on the web if you want to chase it. Countries like Brazil, some of the other South American countries...

Here's a list of regions where ivermectin is regularly administered to the general public, which have seen lower Covid death rates:

This simply meant to verify the doctor's statement of correlation; causation has not been proven.

Avery
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    Just looking at the first study, it concludes that there is no benefit. Sorry if I missed something, but this seems to be the opposite of the premise of your answer. I didn't read the other studies. – quant Feb 07 '21 at 22:46
  • You're correct, that was a HCQ study where most patients did not get ivermectin. Removing it and revising now – Avery Feb 07 '21 at 22:49
  • I don't think the India one makes a case either, as it's questionable whether an opinion piece is reputable, and even so it doesn't make claims that support the argument as far as I can tell. The Mexico link is just a tweet so I don't think that's reputable. The Africa study is interesting, although I can't really draw a link between that study and what the immunologist was saying. – quant Feb 07 '21 at 22:54
  • That latest one you added (https://osf.io/wx3zn/) is really good. – quant Feb 07 '21 at 22:56
  • thanks, I still hope someone will write a better answer with more analysis (perhaps of the two major studies I linked), but I hope this answers your question about whether the doctor was referencing real world events – Avery Feb 08 '21 at 01:48
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    I'm not sure that this selection of confirming examples really verifies a correlation. What about those regions where Ivermectin was administered without a clear effect? With regard to the Mexico tweet, in how far does that prove the point? The surrounding Mexican regions also showed a massive decrease in deaths even though they didn't distribute Ivermectin (they're not represented in bright green, though... coincidence?). Doesn't that speak against the correlation? – Schmuddi Feb 08 '21 at 08:34
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    How do you know what the real level of infection or death was in those countries? Tanzania, for example, currently claims, somewhat implausibly, to be free of covid. Neither the key statistics of actual drug administration (as opposed to policy) or mortality are reliable in many of them. Not a good basis for an important result. – matt_black Feb 09 '21 at 10:01
  • If you're not satisfied with the way I verified the doctors statement, feel free to write your own answer based on your own numbers for South America – Avery Feb 09 '21 at 11:18
  • See [this](https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/90552) about the FLCC paper (your 1st link). (And [this](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-statement-on-ivermectin-use-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/) position of Merck [the mfg.] is generally relevant, although it doesn't discuss any study in particular.) – Fizz Feb 09 '21 at 15:01
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    That article reads like a hit piece to me -- it claims other studies failed to reproduce one of Marik's previous protocols, but only cites studies that don't actually reproduce the protocol. The headline claims "physicians spurn randomized trials" but if you scroll down you'll see that the physicians cite no fewer than nine RCTs. It would be nice to have a skeptical article that doesn't stoop to this level of name calling. – Avery Feb 09 '21 at 15:22
  • In any case, the question at hand is "Did the mortality drop after some countries made Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine the standard treatments for COVID-19?" I have answered the question and indicated the correlation. If someone wants to dispute causation they can open a new question. – Avery Feb 09 '21 at 15:32
  • After looking at Kory's [talk here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JS---0EQCU) he strikes me as a spin doctor. He keep saying how "truly remarkable" ivermectin is compared to all other treatments for Covid-19... based on crappy studies. I can think of lots of medications that were "truly remarkable" in mega-meta-analyses based on open-label and observational data and which flopped dramatically in serious RCTs. So yeah, he's spinning the spin to the clueless, as far I can tell. Maybe he's just the wrong guy to push this (overselling it), but the treatment has merit, who knows... – Fizz Feb 09 '21 at 15:34
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This peer-reviewed paper from Reviews of Cardiovascular Medicine in Dec 2020 lists (and links) to studies in 23 countries: Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Bangladesh, Cameroon, China, Colombia, Egypt, France, Ghana, India, Korea, Mexico, Morocco, Mozanbique, Nigeria, Peru, Senegal, South Africa, Spain, Taiwan, Uganda, USA.

Here is a list of 247 HCQ studies, 203 comparing treatment and control groups.

Here is a list of 58 Ivermectin COVID-19 studies, 22 peer reviewed, 38 with results comparing treatment and control groups. Here is a different list for Ivermectin showing the countries involved.

Trialsite News also has links.

This should be a good starting point for your chase.

Richold
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    And here's one study why HCQ can't work against Covid-19 in the relevant cells: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009212 – Fizz Feb 12 '21 at 13:54
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    There are many studies that show that it cannot work. All these studies are worthless because there are studies showing that it works in practice. That is what science is about. Compare with the relativity theory. –  Feb 14 '21 at 05:12
  • The comment is addressed to @Fizz. –  Feb 14 '21 at 07:16
  • @Fizz what's the relationship of this with relativity theory? – quant Feb 18 '21 at 21:04
  • @quant: I suspect you wanted to ask dodd this question. – Fizz Feb 18 '21 at 21:06
  • @Fizz yeah sorry, disregard. – quant Feb 28 '21 at 00:16
  • Here's a review of the studies on https://c19ivermectin.com/ https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted – endolith Mar 15 '22 at 20:15