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In a meme that’s floating around, various social costs are compared to tax evasion in the EU, which is claimed to mount up to 1 000 000 000 000 Euro annually.

Here is an example:

Chart comparing 1 trillion in tax avoidance to 12.5 billion for 1 million refugees

The Swedish text states that the cost for one million refugees is 12.5 billion € compared to annual tax evasion of 1 000 billion €.

No source is given and a simple search doesn’t give any immediate hits.

Is this figure correct, given some reasonable estimate and calculation and is there a source behind the meme?

Oddthinking
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Guran
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    Hi Guran - can you provide an example of the meme, rather than referencing it obliquely? Hearsay doesn't really fit the bill of "notable claim". – jdunlop Oct 29 '19 at 21:07
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    @jdunlop I edited in one example. Text is in Swedish unfortunately. – Guran Oct 29 '19 at 21:12
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    BTW this particular graphic originates from a politician named Lisa Pelling – Guran Oct 29 '19 at 21:22
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    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/02/21/1550732404000/Europe-s--1-trillion-tax-gap/ cites a study that gives a fairly close figure of 750–800 G€. I have no idea how reliable that study is. – Gilles 'SO- stop being evil' Oct 29 '19 at 21:27
  • One of the EU's official sites [claims that the estimates of the avoidance "go up to € 1 trillion."](https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/fight-against-tax-fraud-tax-evasion/a-huge-problem_en), but cite no studies. – jdunlop Oct 29 '19 at 22:00
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    Note that there is a difference between tax *avoidance* and tax *evasion*. Tax avoidance is generally legal, employing loopholes and special exemptions. Tax evasion is, by the most common definition, the use of illegal means to avoid taxes. – Daniel R Hicks Oct 30 '19 at 00:59
  • I think the claim is twofold: that 1 million refugees cost a state 12.5b euros, and that the yearly "cost" of tax avoidance/evasion in the EU is (on the order) of 1000b euros. – John Doe Oct 30 '19 at 16:33
  • It's not the state who loses due to tax evasion/avoidance, but the tax-paying population. In the simple example there needs to be X amount of money in the national pot, and that is raised by charging Y tax payers Z% of their earnings/spending. If everybody paid the taxes that are due, the tax rates could be reduced. – Weather Vane Oct 30 '19 at 19:52
  • @DanielRHicks The claim here is definitely for evasion. – Guran Oct 30 '19 at 20:08
  • @JohnW. It certainly is, but I’m specifically asking about the latter. (I’ve seen the same figure for tax evasion used in comparison to other allegedly much smaller cost as well) – Guran Oct 30 '19 at 20:11
  • @Guran - What constitutes "evasion" is quite sensitive to ones political (and economic) leanings. And many references will muddle the two. – Daniel R Hicks Oct 30 '19 at 20:43
  • Cum-ex has been called the biggest tax scandal but is estimated below 100 billion (https://www.dw.com/en/cum-ex-tax-scandal-cost-european-treasuries-55-billion/a-45935370) - I assume that billion = 10^9 here – Hagen von Eitzen Oct 31 '19 at 07:42
  • @DanielRHicks Yep. Any source that reached the sum in “avoidance” but required a dose of ideology to reach it in “evasion” would make a good answer. – Guran Oct 31 '19 at 07:48
  • 1000 billion € is not more than 2000€ per inhabitant in the EU. That does not sound entirely unplausible, but since this money is withheld public control, you won't get anything but estimates. Noone can for sure know how much money is involved. – Tor-Einar Jarnbjo Oct 31 '19 at 16:49

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