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Supposedly, Trump told soldiers in Iraq that (1) he just got them a 10% pay raise, and (2) supposedly also told them that this is the first raise they have received in a decade.

Fact check: Trump brags to troops about 10 percent pay raise he didn't actually give them

Trump misleads about military pay raises again

And a here is a politifact page about this, also claiming it to be a complete lie.

Both facts are being called false by the media. It is being reported that the raise is actually 2.6%, which is not only not 10%, but is not even the largest raise they have received in the decade he mentioned.

Is the military receiving a 10% pay raise?

If not true, and if not a complete fabrication, where does the 10% figure come from?

CNN and NBC have already provided government citation on the "only pay raise in a decade" part, pointing to the pay raises for each year here, and because of that I am asking only about the 10% raise figure, not about the "no raises in a decade" statement.

The basic pay raises since 2007:

1 January 2007: 2.2%

1 April 2007: 0.5%

1 January 2008: 3.5%

1 January 2009: 3.9%

1 January 2010: 3.4%

1 January 2011: 1.4%

1 January 2012: 1.6%

1 January 2013: 1.7%

1 January 2014: 1.0%

1 January 2015: 1.0%

1 January 2016: 1.3%

1 January 2017: 2.1%

1 January 2018: 2.4%

Aaron
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    I feel like your question has already shown the evidence that the claim is false - what other source are you expecting someone to find? The only source for the claim is a statement by one person known to make false statements to the media, which are often different from the statements made by that same individual minutes, hours, days, or weeks apart. The only person who is likely to know where "10%" came from is Donald Trump, the rest of us can only guess. – Bryan Krause Dec 27 '18 at 18:27
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    I think that the assumption is that sometimes Trump's seemingly false statements have an element of truth, or can be made correct by looking at the truth from a specific and non-intuitive perspective. I believe that is what the asker seeks - is there a perspective or kernel of truth that makes this at least partially true? Or, alternatively, what Fox program did Trump get the 10% figure from? – cpcodes Dec 27 '18 at 18:31
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    @cpcodes I can see that; there might be a kernel of truth in the 10 years in that the 2019 raise is the largest since 2010 and 9 years is almost 10 years if you round up. And 10 years is the same number as 10% if you aren't concerned with the meaning of units or percentage signs. But this seems to be a poor Skeptics approach, because ultimately it resolves to speculation about what is going on in the head of one individual. – Bryan Krause Dec 27 '18 at 18:42
  • Not only is it false that this is the first raise in a decade, but the military even received raises in years that the rest of the federal government had pay freezes. I don't know how he managed to sit on the plane ride back from Iraq, his pants must have been exploding. – Barmar Dec 27 '18 at 23:06
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    @cpcodes I suspect 10% is the increase in total imputed/budget cost. Compensation for enlisted soldiers is very different from civilian benefits in that there are non-taxable payments (combat pay, BAH/BAS), in-kind benefits (barracks, food, uniform allowance, healthcare, dependent benefits, standby travel), deferred benefits (retirement, death benefits, GI Bill) and locality adjustments. We see pay is up 2.5%, but also people here forget that BAH (non-taxable) is up about 2.5%, so that's a factor. I warn against looking at a single part of the whole equation – user71659 Dec 28 '18 at 01:03
  • On the list of "raises" in the question, I see in between 7 and 10 years of pay cuts. Any year where the numeric value of pay doesn't increase as much as inflation is a loss of "real wages" which are the ones that count. – Ben Voigt Dec 28 '18 at 02:36
  • Trump is correct when viewed through the lens of Washington budget lingo. In Congress, if Agency X got a 2% increase this year and a 2% increase last year, then Agency X's budget is "unchanged". If Agency X only gets a 1% increase this year, then Agency X had its budget "slashed" by 50%. ... The military gets a 2.6% increase this year versus 2.4% last year. 2.6 is 10% larger than 2.4. So, Trump misspoke, but that's because he got befuddled by swamp speak and (other) spinmeisters. – Brock Adams Dec 28 '18 at 05:15
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    @BrockAdams: That could be a good answer, if you can include evidence to show that this usage is common within the government. However, I'd suggest avoiding loaded terms like "swamp speak" which may lead people to question your impartiality. – Nate Eldredge Dec 29 '18 at 22:54
  • @user71659 That is a great point. Do we know if those other benefits would work out to at least approximately 10% raise? – Aaron Jan 03 '19 at 17:03

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No, they will not.

They will receive a 2.6% pay raise as has been reported in several locations, such as the Washington Post, and by the US Department of Defense.

Such pay raises are in bills passed by Congress and then either signed by the President or passed over his veto by a sufficient Congressional super majority, like all other U.S. appropriations bills.

This is the largest pay raise since 2010, which is less than 10 years earlier than 2019, as indicated in the list of pay raises presented in the OP.

Bryan Krause
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  • According to militarybenefits.info those who were making $15,800/mo in 2018 got a raise to $15,800.10/mo which is a "10 cent" raise which is easy to mistake for "10 percent" during a speech, especially if the speaker delivers it as "10 uh... cent" with only a very short pause after the "uh". – SamYonnou Dec 27 '18 at 21:14
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    @SamYonnou I don't see that anywhere, and it makes little sense because A) It's about 2018, B) The numbers don't include cents, C) It's about only the very top tier pay rate not about a common soldier, D) 10 cents is nothing near the 2.4% raise in 2017, E) He didn't say "10 uh...cent" and the clear claim was that this was a bigger (bigglier?) than usual raise. – Bryan Krause Dec 27 '18 at 21:19
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    you can see the 10 cent raise comparing the 2019 to the 2018 pay charts on militarybenefits.info for example in the O-10 grade in the "Over 20" column. The 2.6% raise is for the basic pay rates. Different grades receive a different total increase. And yeah he probably didn't say "10 uh... cent" but I thought it was an amusing technicality. – SamYonnou Dec 27 '18 at 21:25
  • @SamYonnou Gotcha; it looks like the 2018 chart is simply omitting cents and it's just that the rate for O-10 (and O-9 with sufficient experience) hasn't changed. The 2018 page also mentions $15,800.10 as an upper limit which is due to limits imposed by other federal wage scales. Thus it seems that those of O-9 and O-10 rank are not due the raise at all unless those other scales are adjusted. – Bryan Krause Dec 27 '18 at 21:29
  • So he lies about pay to his own troops at Christmas - nice! – Lightness Races in Orbit Dec 27 '18 at 22:36
  • @LightnessRacesinOrbit Eh, somewhat worse. The troops likely have a good idea of what they are paid and will actually see it in their paychecks, lying to them doesn't have much effect. He's also lying to people watching TV who are not troops and may not see a source that disproves the lie. – Bryan Krause Dec 27 '18 at 22:39
  • @BryanKrause Unlike a civilian job, there are significant _additions_ to base salary that show up in paychecks. A big one is BAH/BAS which is untaxable locality-adjusted compensation for food and housing. BAH has gone up, on average, 2.5% as well. Then there is a locality adjustment. Plus things like healthcare, retirement, dependent benefits. Your answer is incomplete and misleading without considering these complex elements. – user71659 Dec 28 '18 at 00:52
  • @BryanKrause Running some numbers through the [pay calculator](https://militarypay.defense.gov/calculators/rmc-calculator/), for a E-8, BAH/BAS + equivalent tax benefits adds up to 75% of basic pay. No civilian job has 75% of direct compensation outside of salary. So you need to account for all of these factors. – user71659 Dec 28 '18 at 01:13
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    @user71659 You're free to submit your own answer. I disagree, however, that that is unlike a civilian job: civilians get benefits, too. People don't describe changes to their benefits as a raise, raises are a base salary increase. Additionally, if you want to think of your pay as pay+BAH, and pay goes up 2.5% and BAH goes up 2.5% your raise is...2.5%. If only one increased, it would be less than 2.5%, because it would be a weighted average including 0%. – Bryan Krause Dec 28 '18 at 01:13
  • @BryanKrause What I know is that military pay is complex, and when you factor in deferred compensation, like retirement and GI Bill, it gets very complicated. I don't know enough to calculate this, but I know that taking base pay, which is certainly less than 1/2 of a soldier's total compensation, is definitely ignoring important pieces. – user71659 Dec 28 '18 at 01:24
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    @user71659 Again, if you can find a source that shows that all of those things have increased 10% then that's great, but I don't believe they have, so what I've posted here is complete and correct. – Bryan Krause Dec 28 '18 at 02:27