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I was watching a video by conservative political commentator Ben Shapiro. He talks about Nike's ad featuring Colin Kaepernick. There is a claim he makes that black people are not being disproportionately shot by police.

The question is "Are you believing the right things?" Colin Kaepernick is not. He hasn't provided a shred of data to support his assertions that black people in the United States are being disproportionately shot by police, because in fact they are not.
Link to quote in video

This is the claim I would like to know is true or not, even though Shapiro further says that cops aren't "out there" shooting Black people but largely protecting Black people "that's why they're policing the inner city" and earlier he says that the disproportionality is a [thus] a "statistical anomaly".

Fizz
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Zebrafish
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    You'd need to define "disproportionate". Are you asking whether it's not proportionate to population ("black people are 50% of the population, but make up 70% of people shot by police"), not proportionate to population within a certain socio-economic group ("for people with household incomes less than $20,000, black people are 60% of the population, but make up 70% of people shot"), or proportionate to people with a criminal record ("55% of convicted criminals are black, but 70% of people shot by police are black"). This is especially important with respect to your word "unjustifiably". – AndyT Sep 24 '18 at 14:28
  • @AndyT: I've dropped the word "unjustifiable" as it wasn't claimed. The definition of "disproportionate" should ideally come from the claimant (perhaps elsewhere) or failing that, be taken generously for the claimant. The answerer should explain the definition they are using. – Oddthinking Sep 24 '18 at 14:34
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    @Oddthinking The reason I used "justifiably" is because I want to get to the bottom of whether there is a race problem. If it so happens for example that more black people are involved in crime, and also shot more often, then the overrepresentation of black people shot might just be a mere reflection of police shooting criminals. I didn't know how else phrase it. – Zebrafish Sep 24 '18 at 14:41
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    With the massive edit, I don't think this question is salvageable. Any answer is not going to answer what OP is actually curious about. – pipe Sep 24 '18 at 14:55
  • "Unjustifiable" is largely opinion-based. "Disproportionate" depends on definitions, but is more objective. – Oddthinking Sep 24 '18 at 15:03
  • @AndyT "You'd need to define "disproportionate"" Not sure. If the context was a subgroup (say criminal people) than disproportionate would be relative to the subgroup but in the absence of any limitation I would always see it relative to the total population (of the US in this case). I would only check that there wasn't any specific context present. – NoDataDumpNoContribution Sep 24 '18 at 15:20
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    @Oddthinking I've looked at the other question and it says that indeed blacks are disproportionately shot, however states that black people are more likely to be involved in crime. Also the evidence given in these answers show the disproportionality of black deaths by police. The claim made by Shapiro as it stands on its own seems false. But if we accept that black people commit more crimes along with being shot more often by police, then this wouldn't necessarily suggest a racial motive. I believe both answers here and in the other question answer my query, should this become a duplicate? – Zebrafish Sep 24 '18 at 15:33
  • @Trilarion - Person A says "Black people are being shot disproportionately by police" based on the population being 50% black and shot people being 70% black, and Person B says "No they're not; 70% of convicted criminals are black and 70% of shot people are black", then who's right? They both are? With skepticism, the key to answering whether something is true is to define the parameters we are interested in. – AndyT Sep 24 '18 at 15:40
  • I'm accepting that suggested duplicate answer, even though there are two answers in this question that are of value. Essentially the other question is asking the same thing as mine. – Zebrafish Sep 24 '18 at 15:53
  • @AndyT I think in your examples person A is right and person B is wrong if you take the one definition of disproportionate that is most often used. On the one hand I absolutely understand your desire to have clear cut statements with everything clearly defined but on the other hand everything is somewhat subjective. Remember Bill Clintons famous line "that depends upon the meaning of the word is"? Shapiro could have meant it in some obscure way. Everything is possible. But is there a somewhat common interpretation of disproportionate in general statements about ethnicities? – NoDataDumpNoContribution Sep 24 '18 at 21:04
  • Is the claim really about being shot more or not, or is it about the lack of consequence when a black life is taken where they were not threatening other lives in any way? If black lives were being lost, but then those taking the lives were charged and convicted of murder on a regular basis, there would still be the issue of the lives being lost, I'm sure, but it would not be about lack of justice, accountability, or the reminder that certain lives also matter. – PoloHoleSet Sep 25 '18 at 17:26

2 Answers2

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According the Washington Post database:

People fatally shot by police were:

19% Blacks in 2018 through August 30th

23% Blacks in 2017

24% Blacks in 2016

26% Blacks in 2015

14% of the US population reported that they were Black in the most recent census.

DavePhD
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    I don’t think this is a sufficient argument because right-wing commentators then simply turn around and say that black people are more likely to be criminals, and thus get into more altercations with police. The figures get a lot more muddy when considering frequency of police interactions and their causes. Unfortunately it’s really quite impossible to tackle this question without tackling the question of crime rates. – Konrad Rudolph Sep 24 '18 at 15:44
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    @KonradRudolph it's not an argument at all, just data – DavePhD Sep 24 '18 at 15:48
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    These numbers are quite a bit lower than the violent crime rate for blacks, so is it fair to say then that they are fatally shot disproportionately *less* than other groups? – helrich Sep 24 '18 at 15:59
  • @helrich You could, but only if you add that the disproportion is relative to the number of criminals to clearly state what you mean and then one maybe could say that some crimes are minor and should not really be connected to being shot at all, say shoplifting or smuggling for example. – NoDataDumpNoContribution Sep 25 '18 at 13:09
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    The question is about the proportion, not the reasons. This answer gives the proportion. It's perfect. – DJClayworth Jan 27 '21 at 22:31
  • @KonradRudolph They would be right in making that point---when you compare police shootings to arrests you find whites are non-significantly more likely to be shot by police. – Loren Pechtel Jan 28 '21 at 05:38
  • @LorenPechtel That’s what I’m saying. Statistics are only part of this answer, due to the low numbers of cases, and because they erase motivation. It’s a shame no other answer here addresses this, because it paints a false picture. But we *know* from individual cases that (while fairly rare) racially motivated lynching-style murders of black people by police still happen and, what’s more, usually go unpunished (at least until after public outcry). – Konrad Rudolph Jan 28 '21 at 09:03
  • @DJClayworth You're right, but that only implies we should be asking a better question. i.e. Are black people disproportionately shot more relative to the number of police encounters than other people in America?(no, white people actually are, proportionally by encounter) - so then you get into Are black people disproportionately targeted by police causing more encounters? (yes, why is hard) - then Why does 14% of the population account for 68% of police encounters? (14/68 made up for example). This simple question and simple answer are simply right, but simply not useful. – TCooper Jan 28 '21 at 20:13
  • Feel free to ask a better question if you can find a notable one. – DJClayworth Jan 28 '21 at 20:48
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In 2015, Vox reported an analysis of 2012 FBI data by Dara Lind:

US police kill black people at disproportionate rates: Black people accounted for 31 percent of police killing victims in 2012, even though they made up just 13 percent of the US population.

In particular, when considering people who were killed when not attacking the police, black people suffer disproportionately:

Chart of percentages kill by police

A Washington Post article in May 2018, argued, with limited data, that there had been a declining trend in both police killings and racial bias in police killings:

Criminologists said the downturn in the number of cases and their analysis of the data indicate that evidence of racial bias by police who shoot and kill unarmed blacks has also declined but not disappeared.

[...]

Goff and others say that the numbers of unarmed shootings are so small that any interpretations amount to guesswork.

“When you’re looking at racial disparities, you’re on super-shaky ground,” said Goff, who said he hoped the public would not interpret the data to mean bias is no longer present.

Looking at this years figures in the Washington Database of police killings, it looks at first glance like that trend for fewer deaths hasn't been maintained in the months since.

Chart of deaths by date per year

[Note: Care should be taken with Ben Shapiro's argument to ensure it is not a strawman. After a moderately brief search, I was unable to find a quote from Colin Kaepernick making precisely the claim being dismissed by Shapiro.]

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Oddthinking
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