Are a third of the crimes in Italy committed by migrants?

Question

The Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini is being criticized after numerous racist assaults happened after he introduced his anti-immigration policy:

Italian Far Right's Salvini Under Fire After Black Athlete Hurt in Attack (NYTimes).

Asked whether these racist attacks were symptoms of a racism emergency in Italy, Salvini replied that migrants are to blame for a third of all crimes in Italy:

At the same time, he dismissed concerns over racist attacks in Italy, saying migrants were to blame for a third of all crimes in the country. "This is the only true drama," he said.

The full quote seems to include a specific number of crimes, 700 per day:

"We racists? The only alarm to the 700 crimes per day of immigrants "

"I remember that the crimes committed every day in Italy by immigrants – he adds – are about 700, almost a third of the total, and this is the only real real alarm against which I am fighting as a minister".

Here is a more notable source for the quote (one of the top-selling Italian newspapers), however the page is in Italian:

Salvini: "Il razzismo? Unico allarme sono i reati degli immigrati". Ed è polemica per la citazione di Mussolini

"Ricordo che i reati commessi ogni giorno in Italia da immigrati sono circa 700, quasi un terzo del totale, e questo è l'unico vero allarme reale contro cui da ministro sto combattendo"

Are a third of the crimes in Italy committed by (possibly non-EU) migrants?

Given that Italy is in the EU one needs to consider what exactly is meant by "migrants". The EU allows free movement of labor (and more restrictively of other EU citizens) in the internal market. — Fizz, Jul 30 '18 at 17:41
@Fizz More important would be context despite the exact definition used. If 1/3 of people in Italy are "migrants" then this isn't really a concerning stat. It's generally assumed that such a stat shows a certain group commits crime more than other groups. In isolation "group X commits Y% of crime" means nothing without knowing what percent of the population is group X. — , Jul 30 '18 at 18:14
@fredsbend: also, there's another issue (I recall a similar question somewhere on SE) where the illegal migrants were automatically guilty of the crime of illegal immigration, so that boosted their crime stats quite a bit. Actually the latter is related to what Berlusconi said: https://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/berlusconi-says-600-000-migrants-are-ready-to-commit-crime-in-italy-1.702052 " 600,000 migrants are 'ready' to commit crime in Italy" — Fizz, Jul 30 '18 at 18:21
Not a full answer, but considering that the immigrant population of Italy is [about 8.3% of the total population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Italy), then he's saying immigrants commit 4 times as many crimes as non-immigrants, which would be easy to prove if true. Basically, when a politician says "I remember" or "I heard", they really mean "I have absolutely nothing to back up what I'm about to say". — Giter, Jul 30 '18 at 18:28
@fredsbend the question is not whether the stats is or not concerning. The questions is "are a third of the crimes in Italy committed by migrants?". Let's stick to my original question. — LordCommander, Jul 30 '18 at 19:15
@Fizz concerning EU: good point. Based on Salvini's political beliefs, it's safe to assume that by "migrants" (actually he said "immigrants", but I refuse to quibble over that) he means "all foiregn nationals which are either living in Italy or passing through Italy to attempt immigrating to another European state, excluding those who are of European nationality, but including the Roma". Of course illegal residents are included. — LordCommander, Jul 30 '18 at 19:24
@Giter great start for an answer. Since some of the most extreme Salvini's supporters say that "immigrants are 30 times more likely to commit a crime than Italians", 4 times is definitely something the majority of his supporters would accept. Now, let's find out whether it's true or false :-) — LordCommander, Jul 30 '18 at 19:38
@Fixx concerning the crime of illegal immigration: that's to all effects a crime, so counting it is correct, but, like most of what Berlusconi says, the "600000" number is total BS. The increase in foreign residents between 2016 and 2017 was about 20000. A number 30 times higher for illegal immigrants is unbelievable without a reliable source to back it up. The best answer ideally would include both cases, i.e., "if we include the crime of illegal immigration, then Salvini is right, but if we don't he's wrong". — LordCommander, Jul 30 '18 at 19:39
One problem with such statistics is that those groups who are in disfavor with authorities tend to be falsely charged at a much higher rate than the general population and tend to have minor infractions inflated into serious charges at a much higher rate. (This is still true in the US.) So there is a major difference between the number of crimes charged and the number of crimes committed. — Daniel R Hicks, Jul 30 '18 at 20:26
A quick reminder: we can simply look up the statistics and make the reader decide if Salvini is lying or not. We don't need to know exactly what he meant to compare figures. — Sklivvz, Jul 30 '18 at 23:32
Btw Salvini is stigmatizing his imaginary enemy "the immigrants". The meaning is usually "non-whites and Roma", but at times it can also include people from other countries like Albanians. It generally excludes rich Europeans and North Americans. — Sklivvz, Jul 30 '18 at 23:36
@LordCommander Good answers provide context that address the message of the claim, not just the literal sense of it. I don't know how much you've read this site, but its true at least half the time that the facts of a claim conflict with the facts of the message. Providing both sets of facts makes a good and complete answer. — , Jul 31 '18 at 05:15
@LordCommander the 600000 is the total number of migrants arriving in Italy (mostly from Libya), the 20000 is the number who were actually granted resident status. There is no discrepancy here, as a lot of the rest were never deported. — jwenting, Jul 31 '18 at 06:47
thanks @Sklivvz for your clarifications. I agree on all you said: I just need to see the stats (from reliable sources), then I can make up my own mind. You comment on Salvini is also accurate: it looks like you understand the Italian political scenario well. — LordCommander, Jul 31 '18 at 07:54
@jwenting I misread Berlusconi's number: he refers to the total number of illegal migrants arrived in Italy since 2013. Again, let's stick to the original question: I'm asking if it's true that 1/3 of all crimes in Italy are committed by migrants. It doesn't make sense to consider the total number of illegal immigrants arrived in 5 years, because they didn't all commit the crime of illegal immigration in the same year. It could make sense to refer to the average number of illegal migrants per year, **if** backed up by reliable sources: of course Berlusconi's words are not enough. — LordCommander, Jul 31 '18 at 08:10
@fredsbend ok, I may have misread your comment. If the answer includes also facts beyond the literal claim, then sure, that will indeed make it more complete, as you say. But I agree with Sklivvz that I mostly need the stats, then I can make up my own mind. Your suggestion may also help deal with Fizz's objection: if both the number of crimes per year including illegal immigration **and** not including illegal immigration are provided, then the answer is definitely more complete. But I don't want to make it too hard to get an answer, so I'll also accept answers about the literal claim. — LordCommander, Jul 31 '18 at 08:22
@LordCommander yes, the stats aren't clear and no doubt not always reported correctly for political reasons (with major differences one way or another depending on the person or organisation responsible). Plus consider the difference between "migrants", "refugees", "illegal immigrants", "immigrants", and the confusion is complete. E.g. of all the migrants flooding Italy, only a limited number are refugees, the rest are economic migrants. Immigrants are almost by definition people with prior approved plans and permits. Etc. — jwenting, Jul 31 '18 at 08:22
@jwenting indeed, the subject is delicate and prone to misrepresentations which suit the agendas of different parties. I think the answer in its current form is clear enough, but if you have suggestions to improve it, I'll hear them. — LordCommander, Jul 31 '18 at 08:27
Another point to consider in crime statistics is not only % crimes vs. % total population, but also the *social* aspect: Whether the group in question might be overrepresented in lower social classes -- [which crime control policies (and thus, crime statistics) focus on](http://criminal-justice.iresearchnet.com/crime/social-class-and-crime/). Just sayin'. — DevSolar, Jul 31 '18 at 09:08
The translation provided in the question sucks. When somebody says `Io ricordo che X` does **not** mean *I remember that X* it means *I shall put in your consideration that X*. The literal meaning is "to remember" but that is not the way in which it is used here. So Salvini is **not** saying that he heard that thing and "remembers it" a-la Trump way, he is saying that you should consider that fact. Whether that fact is true or not is a different matter... him being a minister should mean that he has internal sources for such data, but I don't believe that he is really trustworthy. — Giacomo Alzetta, Jul 31 '18 at 09:15
@GiacomoAlzetta: That is "I remind you" instead of "I remember". — DevSolar, Jul 31 '18 at 09:49
@DevSolar Yes, that's my point. In Italian "Io ricordo che" can mean both, Salvini used it as "I remind you" but the question translates it as "I remember", and a dozen of comments above are about that specific *incorrect* translation. — Giacomo Alzetta, Jul 31 '18 at 10:33
@GiacomoAlzetta the question doesn't translate anything: it just quotes [the content of the linked page](https://www.archyworldys.com/we-racists-the-only-alarm-to-the-700-crimes-per-day-of-immigrants/) _verbatim_, as you may have easily verified yourself. Anyway, I also linked a page in Italian, and not a single comment (except yours) is quibbling on "I remember" vs "I remind you that". All comments are referring to other points: what Salvini means by "immigrants", what is the percentage of group X relative to the overall population, whether to include illegal immigration as a crime, etc. — LordCommander, Jul 31 '18 at 12:42
On a side note, even if the claim was right, that would make Salvini an Interior Minister who brags about dealing with only one third of the crimes on Italian territory. — Evargalo, Aug 01 '18 at 09:07

Giter · Accepted Answer · 2018-08-01T17:41:23.083

No part of Matteo Salvini's claim is true.

When looking at data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics(Istat), neither the 'one third' or '700' claim make any sense in regards to the number of crimes committed. Unless Salvini provides the source of those numbers, it's pretty safe to say either he or his source made them up.

However, roughly one third of total people convicted in Italy did have a 'foreign origin'. The claim is still wrong as not every foreigner in Italy is an immigrant, but it may be the reasoning behind Salvini's claim.

(all of the data in this answer can be found here)

Number of crimes per day: To start, the claim that immigrants commit 700/one third of all crimes committed daily is simply wrong: nearly 7000 crimes are reported daily in Italy. According to official Istat data, there were about 2.5 million reported crimes in Italy in 2016:

The above is all reported crimes, including those where the offender and their nationality is unknown. Looking at only crimes with known offenders, there were 1500 per day in 2016:

Therefore, in order for Salvini's '700' number to be correct either total crime dropped 70% since 2016, or the number of solved crimes has risen 50% since 2016. Neither of those are realistic, so the '700' part of the claim is likely just completely made up.

Number of foreign criminals: That that seems to line up with the 'one third' part of the claim is the number of convicted criminals with a foreign origin, which is roughly one third of all convicted criminals:

:

As you can see, roughly a third of the 200,000 total convicted criminals were from somewhere other than Italy. However, it is misleading to say they are immigrants, as this stat includes every foreigner in Italy: immigrants, tourists, migrant workers, refugees, travelers passing through Italy, etc. Because of this, it is safe to say that the percentage of criminals who are immigrants is some large amount less than one third(and far below 700 per day).

In short, until we know where Salvini is getting his data we can say the claim is completely false. Saying that 700 crimes/a third of the total are committed by immigrants daily makes absolutely no sense, as the total number of crimes is much too high and the number of crimes with known offenders is too low. Saying that a third of all criminals in Italy are immigrants is slightly less wrong, though it is still not true.

Are a third of the crimes in Italy committed by migrants?

1 Answers1