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In July 2016, Donald Trump, as a US presidential candidate was quoted by ABC News as saying:

The people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.

Politifact confirmed the quote and looked into reports at the time about whether this demonstrated ignorance of the "geopolitical developments" in Crimea.

"Okay, well, he's there in a certain way, but I'm not there yet," Trump responded. "You have Obama there. And frankly, that whole part of the world is a mess under Obama, with all the strength that you're talking about and all of the power of NATO and all of this, in the meantime, he's going where — he takes, takes Crimea, he's sort of — I mean. …The people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were."

Many news outlets interpreted this as Trump’s ignorance. But it’s not entirely clear if the ridicule is completely warranted.

...

So we’re not putting Trump’s statements on the Truth-O-Meter, but we did want to examine Russia’s presence in Ukraine more in-depth. Let’s brush up on some modern Eastern European history.

This old story was revived today by a quote-tweet by Rick Wilson, retweeted by David Leavitt, who is currently a Twitter verified user, the accuracy of the claim called into doubt by many tweeters (for example).

The impression I have is that the Soviet Union "ethnically cleansed" Crimean Tatars living there, leaving the place with a high proportion of ethnic Russians, many of whom nowadays prefer to be with Russia than Ukraine.

In 2016, did the Crimean people want to be aligned with Russia or Ukraine?

Note: This isn't about whether the Crimean referendum is legal, or whether Russia's annexation of Crimea is legal.

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Andrew Grimm
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2 Answers2

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It's not terribly clear to me what you're asking, but the 2017 survey by the German ZOiS (found via an RT story) has these highlights (not all of them reproduced by RT):

The vast majority of the Crimean population would vote for the status quo in a future repeat referendum on Crimea’s status and express trust in Russian state institutions.

The Crimean Tartars remain much more sceptical of the current regime.

So there's indeed a divergence of opinion between Crimean Tartars and the majority of Crimeans. Also, there's an interesting question about identity in the survey:

enter image description here

84% of non-Tartar Crimeans would preferentially describe themselves as Russians citizens, whereas only about half of the Tartars do that.

Also, a couple of questions later (fig 17), 67.8% (of the total) described themselves as "ethnic Russian", followed by "Ethnic Crimean-Tartar" 11.7% and 8% "mixed Russian-Ukrainian" and 7.5% "ethnic Ukrainian". And (fig 20) 83% of all respondents declared they only speak Russian at home. Finally (fig 38) 83.4% of non-Tartars would vote the same same as in the 2014 referendum, whereas only 49.2% of the Tartars would do that. The combined percentage of Crimeans who would vote the same was 78.8%.

This probably answers all your potential questions. I was a bit surprised such a detailed survey was conducted.

SQB
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Fizz
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    How trustworthy is the organisation that did the survey, and can we be confident that most respondents said what they really thought? – Andrew Grimm Jun 10 '18 at 06:41
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    @AndrewGrimm: Although I had not heard of ZOiS until today, it seems to be a genuine German academic/research institution based on its other publications. Furthermore the author has a Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwendolyn_Sasse ... which has no red flags. I don't know if "can we be confident that most respondents said what they really thought". – Fizz Jun 10 '18 at 06:51
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    @AndrewGrimm: The methodology part of survey says: " The survey was conducted through individual face-to-face interviews. It is based on a representative sample of 1,800 urban and rural Crimean residents aged 18 and older. A booster sample of 200 Crimean Tatars was added to ensure that a sufficient number of Crimean Tatars were included in the sample. " – Fizz Jun 10 '18 at 06:56
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    And how much of this is due to Russia moving in new inhabitants? To me, a much more accurate survey would be only asking those who lived there say 5 years ago. – Loren Pechtel Jun 11 '18 at 03:36
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    @LorenPechtel: oh, you'll have to go much further than 5 years to get a different result. From [a book on the topic](https://www.e-ir.info/2015/03/24/crimea-people-and-territory-before-and-after-annexation/): "The Russia Bloc, which favoured an independent Crimea or the region’s reunification with Russia, received 67 per cent of the votes in the 1994 parliamentary election. Yury Meshkov, its candidate, won 73 per cent of the votes in the second round of the 1994 presidential election in Crimea." – Fizz Jun 11 '18 at 04:15
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    "[...] Crimea was the only region of Ukraine with a majority ethnic Russian population. The 2001 census recorded 58 per cent of the population of Crimea, including Sevastopol, as ethnic Russian, and 24 per cent as ethnic Ukrainians. The Crimean Tatars constituted 10 per cent of the population.[...] The 1996 USIA/SOCIS-Gallup survey showed that 59 per cent of ethnic Russians in Crimea supported their region joining Russia. A significant percentage of ethnic Ukrainians (41 per cent), and a much lower percentage of the Crimean Tatars (8 per cent), expressed the same preference. " – Fizz Jun 11 '18 at 04:16
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    "[...] In the 2008 Razumkov Center survey, conducted soon after the Russian-Georgian war following an attempt by the Georgian government to seize the de-facto independent secessionist region of South Ossetia, 73 per cent of the Crimeans, who made their minds on this issue, backed the secession of Crimea from Ukraine with a goal of joining Russia (calculated from AR Krym, 2008). In this survey, 85 per cent of ethnic Russians, 65 per cent of ethnic Ukrainians, and 17 per cent of the Crimean Tatars wanted their region to secede from Ukraine." – Fizz Jun 11 '18 at 04:21
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    Or actually closer, but support for separatism only decreased recently in the view of substantial pro-Russia promises: "However, the outright secessionist preferences in Crimea declined afterwards, and they were expressed by 38 per cent of the respondents in the 2009 Razumkov Center poll. Thirty per cent voiced such views in the 2011 Razumkov Center poll after Yanukovych won the 2010 presidential election with promises of closer political and economic cooperation with Russia and making Russian the second state language in Ukraine (Iakist, 2011, p. 27)." – Fizz Jun 11 '18 at 04:26
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    I wasn't specifically talking about going back far enough to change the results, but simply going back far enough to avoid Russia stacking the deck. – Loren Pechtel Jun 11 '18 at 04:40
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    @LorenPechtel: That would be before Stalin did his ethnic cleansing, in the 1940. – Fizz Jun 11 '18 at 04:48
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    From [LSE](http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseih/2015/03/04/does-russia-have-a-legitimate-claim-to-parts-of-ukraine/): "In spite of substantial Russian colonisation efforts throughout the 19th century, around 1900 the Tatars still formed the largest ethnic group on the peninsula. The demographic pre-eminence of ethnic Russians in Crimea was only firmly solidified following the mass deportation of the entire Crimean Tatar population, as well as the smaller populations of ethnic Armenians, Bulgars, and Greeks, at Joseph Stalin’s behest in 1944." – Fizz Jun 11 '18 at 04:49
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    (continued) "This de facto ethnic cleansing of the peninsula’s native inhabitants led to the death of between 20 and 50 percent of the Crimean Tatar community; the remainder were only able to return to Crimea in the 1990s." – Fizz Jun 11 '18 at 04:49
  • [One Year After Russia Annexed Crimea, Locals Prefer Moscow To Kiev](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/03/20/one-year-after-russia-annexed-crimea-locals-prefer-moscow-to-kiev/#7170e601510d): "A Gallup poll with the Broadcasting Board of Governors asked Crimeans if the results in the March 16, 2014 referendum to secede reflected the views of the people. A total of 82.8% of Crimeans said yes." ... – Keith McClary Jun 16 '18 at 19:20
  • ... "In February 2015, a poll by German polling firm GfK revealed that attitudes have not changed. When asked 'Do you endorse Russia’s annexation of Crimea?', a total of 82% of the respondents answered 'yes, definitely,' " – Keith McClary Jun 16 '18 at 19:20
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    Here is a copy of [the GfK poll](https://imgur.com/a/Rm5Aa). – Keith McClary Jun 18 '18 at 21:16
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    ZOiS was [established by the German Federal Government](https://www.science-community.org/en/node/168694) in 2016. – Keith McClary Jul 02 '18 at 20:31
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    @Fizz : Most of your comments answering Loren Pechtel would fit nicely in the body of your (already good) answer. – Evargalo Feb 27 '19 at 12:11
  • "*The vast majority of the Crimean population would vote for the status quo*" does not seem to be supported by the text of the poll. The question is about "if asked about your citizenship", not about the referendum. It's three years after Russian annexation. The poll seems to be asking about a fact rather than an opinion. – Schwern Dec 30 '22 at 21:54
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In addition to the ZOiS (German government) poll mentioned by Fizz, there were polls funded by the US and Canadian governments. One Year After Russia Annexed Crimea, Locals Prefer Moscow To Kiev (Forbes):

A Gallup poll with the Broadcasting Board of Governors asked Crimeans if the results in the March 16, 2014 referendum to secede reflected the views of the people. A total of 82.8% of Crimeans said yes.
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In February 2015, a poll by German polling firm GfK revealed that attitudes have not changed. When asked 'Do you endorse Russia’s annexation of Crimea?', a total of 82% of the respondents answered 'yes, definitely,'

The GfK poll (P. 7) finds that only 4% of Crimeans do not support the accession of Crimea to Russia.

(Forbes' link to the GfK poll is broken but there is a copy here and a "Free Crimea project" video presentation.)

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