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It has been widely reported that the Facebook post of a user called Pablo Reyes made a number of startling predictions:

Call me crazy but in 2016 Hillary Clinton will be the first female president, the world will go crazy over the death of a gorilla, Prince will die, Muhammad Ali will die, Kimbo Slice will die, Donald Trump will die. The USA will experience the worst mass shooting .. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but you'll remember my name.

The timestamp is 27 December 2015.

At least four of those predictions have come to pass. I just don't think it's possible that this person predicted those events before the fact. Additionally, there are a relatively small number of comments for such a popular post and they were all made yesterday.

I think the more likely explanation is that they spoofed the timestamp on Facebook, but on that side of things, it's also fairly unlikely that that's possible (far from impossible though).

Were these predictions made in December 2015?

Sklivvz
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Dom
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  • Please keep comments to seeking improvements or clarification of this question. Chat about related subjects should be taken to chat. – Jamiec Jun 16 '16 at 10:36
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    Five have actually happened; 1. uproar over the gorilla, 2. Prince died, 3. Ali died, 4. Slice died, 5. The USA experienced the worst mass shooting in modern history. – TylerH Jun 16 '16 at 18:31
  • @ANeves Worst in recent US history, not world history. – JBentley Jun 17 '16 at 10:53
  • @ANeves It doesn't say in *any* history, but given that the predictions are a fake, it's reasonable to assume his intention was to refer to the actual facts (to make the prediction seem to be correct) - which are that it was the worst in recent US history. – JBentley Jun 17 '16 at 13:56
  • @ANeves Sorry, I should have said the US experienced *its* worst mass shooting rather than *the* worst mass shooting. No one has made the claim--so far as I know--that it's the worst in modern world history. – TylerH Jun 17 '16 at 14:22
  • @TylerH fair enough, I understand your point that `the USA will experience the worst mass shooting...` would mostly be understood as "the worst mass shooting in its history".) – ANeves Jun 17 '16 at 14:57

1 Answers1

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No it's a fake prediction made by editing the post.

edit history

In order to verify independently go to the post, click on the downward chevron, and click on "View edit history".

post pop up menu, then view edit history

George Chalhoub
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Sklivvz
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    So simple, it didn't occur to me. I think posts used to say "edited" somewhere next to the timestamp. – Dom Jun 14 '16 at 17:43
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    I find the tornadoes thing way funnier than their attempt at Nostradamus. – Arturo Torres Sánchez Jun 14 '16 at 19:20
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    That's not even as creative as [the guy who predicted the World Cup results](http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/22345/did-the-twitter-account-fifndhs-predict-the-exact-world-cup-results-ahead-of-tim). – Mark Jun 14 '16 at 20:42
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    Even if this wasn't the case, predicting the death of old people for the next year has a high likelihood of becoming true. Also, general statements that "there will be a terrorist attack" or "there will be an airplane crash" or similar are also very likely to become true. – vsz Jun 15 '16 at 04:34
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    @vsz also "worst mass shooting" has a depressing habit of being true -- especially as there's some wiggle room in what consitutes "worst" (a non-numeric measure) – Chris H Jun 15 '16 at 09:44
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    @vsz Prince was only 57. Not young, but not _old_. And Kimbo Slice was only 42. – Random832 Jun 15 '16 at 15:05
  • @ChrisH "worst mass shooting" could be interpreted as worst mass shooting in Amaericas history (so far) happens in 2016 (would match Orlando). Or it could be interpreted as: Among all mass shootings worldwide of 2016, the worst one happened in the USA; that again is presumable true for a lot of years (mass shootings need guns and many people and like any random event are more likely in bigger countries) – Hagen von Eitzen Jun 16 '16 at 18:37
  • @Hagen, yes. Some would rate shootings involving children as "worse" than those involving adults. Others have been reported as not regarding Orlando as a bad thing because of their hatred for the victims. Two ways in which "worst" doesn't have to mean "most prolific". – Chris H Jun 16 '16 at 19:08
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    @Dom You are right, Facebook's UI in the past did display "Edited" right beside the timestamp text. – Nayuki Jun 17 '16 at 00:03
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    @vsz Not really. If you consult an [actuarial table](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) - the probability of death in a year for a 57 year old (Prince's age) is 0.9%, a 74 year old 3.4% (Ali), a 42 year old (Slice) 0.2%, and a 70 year old (Trump) 2.4%. The combined probability of all four of them dying in the same year (ignoring any specific risk factors) is 0.0000015% or 1 in 68,082,788. If we give Clinton a generous 50% odds of winning (from 2015) that doubles it to 1 in 136,165,576. Add in the other predictions, and you're talking 1 in billions. – JBentley Jun 17 '16 at 11:10
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    @JBentley Actually, Clinton's odds of becoming the first female President **in 2016** are much smaller than 50%. She'd first have to get back into a position in the presidential order of succession (VP, Speaker of the House, Pres Pro Tem of the Senate, or a member of the Cabinet,) then Obama and all of the people ahead of her in the order would have to die, resign, or be removed from office. Her odds for 2017 are, however, much better. – reirab Jun 17 '16 at 15:55
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    @reirab That's just getting pedantic. The election is this year, and it's the year most go by, even though inauguration day is next year. – Izkata Jun 18 '16 at 07:59
  • If you're getting into the realm of predictions, pedantry is valid discourse. – Jason Jun 18 '16 at 17:13