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A common claim about how unlikely it is to win a multi-million dollar lottery jackpot is that one is more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the lottery. Is this claim true? Assume our player is playing the Powerball lottery in the United States of America and purchases one ticket.

Related: Are the chances of dying on the way to get lottery tickets larger than the chance of winning?

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Daniel
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    Struck by lightning *where*? As has been reported, [a warden in a large national park is far more likely to be struck by lightning](http://scribol.com/anthropology-and-history/the-man-who-was-struck-by-lightning-seven-times) than many other people – Jamiec Oct 01 '15 at 12:46
  • @Jamiec The "common knowledge" that I have always heard has never cited a location. – Daniel Oct 01 '15 at 12:47
  • @dan then it might be "unclear what the claim is". – John Dvorak Oct 01 '15 at 12:56
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    [Obligatory XKCD](https://xkcd.com/795/) – gerrit Oct 01 '15 at 14:32
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    I had a roommate whose brother was struck by lightning. I think I heard of a few other people not far and wide, too. I don't know that I've ever been closely connected with anyone who has won the lottery, however, but then, I'm against the lottery, and so are most of the people I know, I think. – Brōtsyorfuzthrāx Oct 02 '15 at 18:44
  • Whenever I hear "you're more likely to be struck by lightning" that doesn't comfort me. I'm terrified if I have to run 20 feet from my car to my front door in a thunderstorm. – Kip Oct 08 '15 at 15:26
  • If you play the lotery, you can know the odds. But what can be the meaning of "odds of being struck by lightening" ? If you use to hike on top of mountain or to sail under a thunderstorm, odds are high, If you never leave town, odds are pratically zero. -> When comparing numbers, is it very important to think at which condition one can use which statistics, i.e., to rephrase as precisely as possible the question or claim, and the exact meaning of peculiar statistics that could be used. – Fabrice NEYRET Oct 11 '15 at 19:20
  • -> the question "is there more people per year in USA being deadly strike by lightening rather than winning more than N$ at one of the loteries playable from USA" is very different to "being very close to lightening (maybe chocked but not dead, + the case where you are in a car or a plane or a boat)" (i.e. what do you count as "strike"?), which is very different to "winning more that N$ to THIS lotery if I play only ONCE vs MY odds of lightening (knowing that I'm never outdoor apart in town)". – Fabrice NEYRET Oct 11 '15 at 19:21

1 Answers1

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Summary

As an "Average" person, you are vastly more likely to be hit by lightning over the course of a year (somewhere in the range 1 in 280,000 through 1 in 960,000) than you are to win the jackpot on the powerball lottery in a year (roughly 1 in 2.8 million if you play twice a week for 52 weeks).

Lightning

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration produce a lightning safety pamphlet which states (Emphasis theirs)

The Odds Of An Individual Being A Lightning Casualty In A Year In The U.S. Is About 280,000-To-One -- If You’re An Average Person, In An Average Location, With Average Outside Activities, And Average Lightning Safety Behavior. That’s About 3,000-To-One Over Your Lifetime

However the National Weather service (Oddly enough, a part of the NOAA) lists this same (or similar) probability as:

Odds of being struck in a given year (estimated total deaths + injuries) 1/960,000

Protip: Mexicans should stay indoors during lightning storms!

Powerball Lottery

Wikipedia lists the current probability of a jackpot win on the powerball lottery with the current game listed as odds of

1:292,201,338

If we extend this out to a year's play (in order to bring into line with the NOAA's annual probability) at 2 plays per week for 52 weeks we get a figure of 1:2,809,628

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Jamiec
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    Even if, over the course of 70 years, you played the powerball lottery twice a week for a total of 7280 tickets costing $14,560 you'd still only have a 1 in 40,137 chance of winning the jackpot. Still less likely than dying from a lightening strike. – Murphy Oct 01 '15 at 13:34
  • @Murphy Getting hit by lightning does NOT equal dying. Google struck by lightning twice.. Also [struck by lightning THEN winning the lottery](http://time.com/3966033/canadian-lightning-strike-survivor-wins-lotto/) – James Jenkins Oct 23 '18 at 17:34
  • I wouldn't necessarily call this _vastly_ more likely. Based on these numbers, it seems like you're somewhere between 2 and 10 times more likely to be struck by lightening. – Daniel Dec 08 '19 at 05:40
  • Probably worth checking: If you drive to a shop to pick up a single lottery ticket, and drive back, at which distance are your chances of dying in a traffic accident higher than the chances of winning the lottery? – gnasher729 Jul 18 '22 at 14:42