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According to this article: (emphasis mine)

But now, for the very first time, comes concrete proof that massive voter fraud might have taken place in the 2012 election, sufficiently widespread to have tainted more than 1 million votes nationwide.

And:

Because North Carolina makes for about 2.5 percent of America’s population, the projected number of actual double votes nationally could reach to 1 million.

So is it credible that there were 1 million "fake" votes?

Nick Stauner
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    I didn't find the study they referenced, but it was apparently run by these guys: http://www.ncsbe.gov/ncsbe – Oddthinking May 05 '14 at 15:21
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    Nobody claims that there were 1 million fake votes (at least not in the link you provide). They claim that a linear projection of the North Carolina evidence *would* result in 1 million fake votes. That is a claim about math, not a claim about what is actually the case. –  May 05 '14 at 16:31
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    @Articuno I know. The question is whether that math is credible or is being twisted for whatever reason. Is that off-topic? [This question](http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/14813/is-there-a-red-shift-in-u-s-elections-a-significant-shift-to-republican-vot) is also about math, I don't see why those would be off-topic. – ike May 05 '14 at 19:09
  • Then, I would change your last sentence to ask whether or (100 / 2.5) x 35750 > 1000000. –  May 05 '14 at 19:52
  • @Articuno The question is whether the actual data can be multiplied like that, if it's a valid statistical operation. – ike May 05 '14 at 19:55
  • Mathematically, it's valid only if the North Carolina data is (1) accurate and (2) representative of the entire country. You would want to see convincing evidence of both points before believing that the projection is anywhere near correct. – Nate Eldredge May 05 '14 at 20:04
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    The article also don't claim it *is* correct. They only claim that the fraudulent votes *may* have occurred, both in NC, and in their projection. –  May 05 '14 at 20:08
  • It may be worth noting that the article took a very cautious tone and only *suggested* "further investigation". – ike May 05 '14 at 20:08
  • @Articuno in NC they claim they *definitely* occurred, as it was based on actual votes. Or am I misunderstanding? – ike May 05 '14 at 20:09
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    From the article "The conclusion: 35,750 people who voted in North Carolina *may have also voted* in at least one other state in the 2012 election" (emphasis mine). That's the strongest claim that I saw in the article. –  May 05 '14 at 20:12
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    See: http://www.southernstudies.org/2014/04/whos-driving-north-carolinas-latest-voter-fraud-hy.html – DJClayworth May 06 '14 at 03:36

1 Answers1

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Having let some time pass for investigation, the apparent conclusion here is No, it's not credible.

A Washington Post article titled "7 papers, 4 government inquiries, 2 news investigations and 1 court ruling proving voter fraud is mostly a myth", which admittedly takes a very strong editorial opinion on the matter, links to exactly what it claims to. Of note are the four government investigations, since they include North Carolina (as asked about) and Kansas (as the state which was running the investigative database):

Kansas' secretary of state examined 84 million votes cast in 22 states to look for duplicate registrants. In the end 14 cases were referred for prosecution, representing 0.00000017 percent of the votes cast.

A 10-year 'death audit' in North Carolina turned up a grand total of 50 instances in which a vote may have been attributed to a deceased person, most likely due to errors made by precinct workers.

Additionally, this article describes an investigation where three NC state representatives and one state senator were found to have matching names and dates of birth with registered voters in other states.

So while the original article used enough weasel words that it's not technically wrong, the scale of fraud it described is grossly exaggerated.

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