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The ACA changed health insurance regulations, placing new requirements on most or all health insurance plans in the United States. These changes have resulted in the obsolescence of many existing plans, and the creation of many new plans. As a result of this, some number of individuals are no longer covered by their previous health care plans.

This is commonly in the media termed as people having "lost their insurance due to Obamacare". However, hard numbers are hard to come by. The top several search results all give different numbers, and many are obviously biased.

This site claims five million have lost coverage. The Kansas City Star claims as many as 52 million could lose coverage. CBS reports two million. California Health Line puts the number over seven million. All those numbers are at least a few months out of date, and I don't think I trust any of them even if they were current.

How many people that had health insurance have ceased to have health insurance, confirmably as a direct consequence of the ACA? How many of those now pay more for insurance? And how many of those would be eligible for Medicaid, but live in states that have elected not to accept the Medicaid expansions under the ACA?

Stephen Collings
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    What are you trying to debunk? – isJustMe Apr 01 '14 at 16:15
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    Although this is an important question, I'm not sure it's properly on-topic. – Larry OBrien Apr 01 '14 at 16:15
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    I thought it qualified as objectively determinable. If not, my apologies. – Stephen Collings Apr 01 '14 at 16:53
  • @StephenCollings I think your question is on-topic. You mention that you have seen sources that are clearly biased...just mention some of the claims from these sources so that we can debunk them. – called2voyage Apr 01 '14 at 17:29
  • This is particularly interesting to me because my father-in-law has to pay significantly more for insurance now as a result of ACA, but I am wondering how widespread the effect really is. – called2voyage Apr 01 '14 at 17:30
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    Does a person who lost their previous health plan but now has a different health plan under the ACA counts as someone who "lost their health insurance"? – SIMEL Apr 01 '14 at 19:17
  • I suppose I've technically asked multiple questions, one of which covers that group, and another of which makes clear the distinction. Hope that's okay. – Stephen Collings Apr 01 '14 at 19:19
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    @Stephen: I believe it would be easier to answer if you selected one clear question. You might get a great answer as it stands but you risk that some people may be put off attempting an answer. – RedGrittyBrick Apr 01 '14 at 19:58
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    As others have said, the question is flawed because of the definition of "lost their health insurance". If what that means is "no longer have any health insurance" then that number is probably fairly low. However, if what it means is "lost the coverage they were happy with and now have either less coverage, no longer happy with the coverage or are paying far more (or all of the above)" then that begs further definition. Impacts since 2010 (the 1st year ACA had an affect on coverage) or just the impacts based on when the mandates take affect. – Dunk Apr 07 '14 at 16:35

2 Answers2

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The best estimate of people with non-group policies canceled for 2014 due to the requirements of the Affordable Care Act is

2.6 million

according to a study by the Urban Institute. This value is recommended by factcheck.org as correct.

This represents 18.6% of all people with such policies.

Factcheck.org further corresponded with the author and reports statistical analysis that the 95% confidence interval of the data is:

2.3 million to 3.3 million

DavePhD
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  • Were these people able to find themselves some other plans, to replace the ones that were cancelled? – ChrisW May 23 '15 at 22:30
  • @ChrisW everyone would be able to get another plan, in the sense that no one can be refused health insurance if they pay for it. I don't have any information about how many of the people did actually get other policies. – DavePhD May 23 '15 at 23:05
  • In [this comment](http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/20090/how-many-people-have-lost-their-health-insurance-as-a-result-of-the-aca-obamaca/27802?noredirect=1#comment105055_27808) I thought you were saying that the important part of the question is, "How many of those now pay more for insurance?" – ChrisW May 23 '15 at 23:09
  • @ChrisW The OP has 3 separate: "How many people that had health insurance have ceased to have health insurance, confirmably as a direct consequence of the ACA? How many of those now pay more for insurance? And how many of those would be eligible for Medicaid, but live in states that have elected not to accept the Medicaid expansions under the ACA?" and I only answered the first one. – DavePhD May 24 '15 at 01:39
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Most responsible parties have found that there has been a large net gain in the number of people with coverage; for example the RAND Corporation puts the gain at 9.3 million additional Americans covered.

Ernest Friedman-Hill
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    But the way the question is phrased "How many people that had health insurance have ceased to have health insurance, confirmably as a direct consequence of the ACA? How many of those now pay more for insurance?", it is clear that the question is not asking for net change, otherwise the follow up question "How many of those now pay more for insurance?" doesn't make sense. – DavePhD May 23 '15 at 21:41