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From Top Conservative News:

Muslim immigrants raped over 300 Swedish children in seven months of 2013 In the first seven months of 2013, over 1,000 Swedish women reported being raped by Muslim immigrants. Over 300 of those were under the age of 15. The number of rapes is up 16% compared to 2012 numbers.

They cite Swedish Public Radio.

Is this really true or just some anti muslim rant?

Mad Scientist
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    Another article repeating similar claims about this subject: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4041/european-anti-semitism-muslims – Andrew Grimm Dec 16 '13 at 12:31
  • I rolled back the last edit, that is a different question you added that should be in a separate post with a different, appropriate source for notability – Mad Scientist Dec 22 '13 at 13:38
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    As public media have a code of honour to not needlessly publish things like ethnicity and religion of suspected criminals their claim of source is obviously false. – liftarn Sep 08 '14 at 13:39
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    Do rape victims get to ask their attackers about their religion? – RedSonja Sep 16 '15 at 08:24

4 Answers4

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There are two relevant differences between the "Top Conservative News" summary and the actual report from Swedish Radio, to which they are linking:

  • The Swedish Radio report does not mention the ethnicity of the perpetrator. Since the report refers to the number of police reports and not actual convictions, the perpetrator is likely to be unknown in several cases.

  • The Swedish Radio report only counts the number of reports in Stockholm County. The "Top Conservative News" summary seem to indicate that the numbers are for the whole country.

If we look at the statistics from "Brottsförebyggande rådet" (BRÅ), the actual number for the entire country are as expected quite a bit higher. In the first 7 months of 2013, there were in total 3,426 reports on rape or rape attempt. In 1,133 cases, the victim was below the age of 15 (1,004 girls and 129 boys).

The most recent statistics on crime among immigrants seem to be this report from BRÅ, dated 2005. The report does not quote any absolute numbers, but on page 42, the relative risk of being accused for different kind of crimes is listed for the three categories "born in Sweden, both parents born in Sweden", "born in Sweden, at least one parent born outside Sweden" and "born outside Sweden". For rape and rape attempts, the relative risks for these three categories are 1.0, 1.8 and 5.0.

Now, looking to find the percentage of the total population falling into each of these three groups, "Statistiska centralbyrån" offers the numbers for the year 2008:

  • Born in Sweden, both parents born in Sweden: 75%
  • Born in Sweden, at least one parent born abroad: 11%
  • Born abroad: 14%

With the known risk of correlating three different statistics collected over a range of 8 years, the number of perpetrators in each of the three population groups (considering their share of the total population and relative crime risk) should be approximately:

  • Born in Sweden, both parents born in Sweden: 1557
  • Born in Sweden, at least one parent born abroad: 415
  • Born abroad: 1454

Summing it up: Of the 3,426 reported rapes or rape attempts in the first 7 months of 2013, some 1900 can be assumed to have been performed by a perpetrator born outside Sweden or with at least one parent born outside Sweden.

This is where it seems impossible to get any further with the analysis. There are no public statistics regarding the religion of the foreign-born population and also no crime statistics with a more detailed breakdown of the nationality or religion of the crime suspects. Even if the Swedish Radio news report is misquoted and there are no further backups for the claim, it is not completely unrealistic, that 1000 of the assumed 1900 foreign rapists are Muslims.

Laurel
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Tor-Einar Jarnbjo
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    It seems to me that the salient point is that the linked post, which is just a few sentences long, broadly misrepresents the original Swedish report. If the linked site cannot be trusted to do even sentence-level translation with some integrity, the statistical feasibility of that site's *hypotheses* are hardly worth wasting time on. – Larry OBrien Dec 17 '13 at 22:50
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    The statistical analysis does not take into account that a large majority of rape happens within the family and therefore the likelihood that a foreigner rapes a Swede is much lower than the likelihood that they rape someone of the same ethnicity. – Sklivvz Dec 18 '13 at 09:30
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    @jwenting: I tried to state that with the last paragraph. The only publicly available statistic does however only break down the perpetrators into the three mentioned groups, depending on if the perpetrator or its parent is born in Sweden or not. – Tor-Einar Jarnbjo Dec 20 '13 at 08:29
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    With Stockholm being 1/9th of the population of Sweden, together with immigrants not being unusually concentrated there (http://vaestoliitto-fi-bin.directo.fi/@Bin/c732e77861298b10a9d392dd41804c26/1388134393/application/pdf/1391547/YB%202011_pp.115-135.pdf) and without reason to believe stockholm immigrants are particularly prone to rape over their counterparts elsewhere. It seems to require quite a bit of handwaving to believe that 700 out of those assumed 1900 foreign-born incidents would be just for Stockholm. – Kit Sunde Dec 27 '13 at 09:10
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    A non-political point of clarification. You're using a statistic which you have translated as "the relative risk of being accused for different kind of crimes" to estimate this statistic: "1900 can be assumed to have been performed by a perpetrator born outside Sweden or with at least one parent born outside Sweden". In addition, the English summary uses the phrase "registered as crime suspects". I would recommend editing this answer to indicate that foreign born persons are more likely to be suspected of a crime, rather than to have commited a crime. – De Novo Oct 01 '18 at 17:38
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The Top Conservative News web-site provides a reference from an article from Swedish Public Rado.

Using my rather rusty Swedish, confirmed by Google Translate, the original source makes NO mention of the religion of the perpetrators. The anti-Muslim slur has been added by Top Conservative News.

It says there were 300 reports of rapes of girls under 15 in the first seven months of 2013. Given the percentage of Muslims is estimated 1.8-4.4% (let alone Muslim immigrants), it is fanciful to assume that they are responsible for 300 rapes in that time.

Oddthinking
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  • That is a vicious lie then. Though I don't like Islam, I think this should get straighten up. –  Dec 16 '13 at 03:58
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    But there is no way to verify this otherway. You said it's unlikely. The whole point of the article is that somehow muslims are disproportionately more likely to rape. So saying it's unlikely just based on their percentage is not good enough. Perhaps Norway is full of rapists. Perhaps millions of girls under 15 are raped, 300 of which are buy muslim immigrants. Of course that's not true. But can you provide more info? –  Dec 16 '13 at 04:00
  • Jim, the info is that there were 300 reported rapes of girls under 15, regardless of religion. Ignoring the serious issue of under-reporting, we can dismiss the idea that this is a subset of the rapes being discussed. I think it is fair to dismiss the idea that 100% of natural-born citizens of Sweden (not Norway, BTW) are completely innocent of child rape, which would be the implication. I introduced the percentages to show Sweden is not a predominantly Muslim country. There is no substance to the claim that Muslims are responsible. – Oddthinking Dec 16 '13 at 04:36
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    *"It says there were 300 reports of rapes of girls under 15 in the first seven months of 2013. Given the percentage of Muslims is estimated 1.8-4.4% (let alone Muslim immigrants), it is fanciful to assume that they are responsible for 300 rapes in that time."* I wouldn't agree that it proves anything. AFAIK, in Germany judge Kirsten Heisig alleged that Muslim youth, which are just 5% of population also happen to be 90% of arrested sex offenders. Given that laws in Sweden are much stricter in this aspect it wouldn't surprise me that your assumption is completely wrong. – vartec Dec 16 '13 at 10:28
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    You're begging the question: there are claims that 85% of rapes are by muslim immigrants, that similar (disproportionately high) percentages (most rapes are by immigrants) are recorded in neighbouring countries such as Denmark, that race-based statistics aren't published in Sweden because of political correctness. What you've done in this answer is say that the claim in the OP isn't supported by its reference: which is usual for all questionable claims. A better answer would use other references to affirm or deny the claim. – ChrisW Dec 16 '13 at 10:39
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    @ChrisW: I think the claim is not merely UNSUPPORTED by the cited claim, it is CONTRADICTED. For it to be true, 100% of all rape reports (of girls under 15) would have to be solved crimes, with convictions against no-one but Muslims immigrants, while Swedish citizens (Muslim or otherwise) accounting for well over 95% of the population, either never committed child rape at all or never had their rapes reported. I submit that this is self-evidently absurd, and not in need of a specific reference. – Oddthinking Dec 16 '13 at 10:57
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    your reasoning is unsound and demonstrably false. You make no reference to any supporting evidence to your implicit claim that rape rates among Muslim immigrants are close to those among native Swedes. You just ***assume*** this. Attempted to downvote. Moreover, you *ignore* the well-known preference of mass-media to hide the (racial, religious) identity of perpetrators of crimes so as not to "provoke racist feelings" among the public. -- your "100%" argument doesn't hold water 'coz 95% would be enough to debunk you. "**100** %" arguments are **always** straw man. – Will Ness Dec 16 '13 at 20:12
  • @Oddthinking's point is reasonable that if 300 is the total amount of crimes *reported*, it's unjustified to say something about near-100% of the *circumstances*. As efficient as the Swedish police may be, they certainly don't solve every rape within a matter of months. – Larry OBrien Dec 17 '13 at 00:35
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    @Will Ness: I do not assume that the rape rates amongst the two populations are the same, or even close. I *do* assume it is not 100% versus 0%. I'm having trouble seeing that as unreasonable, especially when the relative population sizes are so biased in the other direction (which I do reference). – Oddthinking Dec 17 '13 at 01:44
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    @Will Ness: I'm confused by the claim of straw man. The claim was explicitly that 300 child rapes were carried out by Muslims immigrants. If the claim was "95% of rapes are carried out by Muslim immigrants", this wouldn't be an acceptable answer, but that wasn't the claim. I think my answer clearly shows the original claim was completely fabricated, and relied on people being unable to read Swedish to stand at all. – Oddthinking Dec 17 '13 at 01:47
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    @ChrisW: See above. I don't attempt to address the 85% claim, I address the 300 claim. If you have cites for the 85% claim, lets make it another question. – Oddthinking Dec 17 '13 at 01:50
  • @Oddthinking I agree that this claim is false. The 'Top Conservative News' site found/took a statistic for the total number of rapes reports in Sweden, and simply blamed all of them on Muslim immigrants. It's not plausible. – ChrisW Dec 17 '13 at 02:11
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    @Oddthinking 300 child rapes, or 278 child rapes, makes absolutely no difference in the context of your counterclaim. That's why it's a straw man. It seems very plausible that some rapes *were* perpetrated by non-Muslim-Immigrant Swedes; we just don't know the proportion. Your claim that the proportion is that of population share is just as unlikely, given the strong cultural norm in more traditional societies to avoid anything leading to blood feud; and they know that "natives" relegate their vengeance to the harmless (comparatively) State. It's a known pattern (re: "uncovered meat"). – Will Ness Dec 17 '13 at 08:12
  • @Oddthinking and ***if*** it *was* 278 child rapes, it won't make the original claim a "slur" by a long shot; the author was just not careful with wording, not distorting the essence of facts in any meaningful degree. Your counterclaim OTOH, will be an enormous distortion (under that supposition). So first make your facts straight. For instance, what was the incidence of child rapes in Sweden in 1958? Do you know? (Google?). – Will Ness Dec 17 '13 at 08:20
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    @WillNess: I repeat I make no claim that it is the same as the population proportion. Immigrants tend to be poor, refugees have been oppressed, Muslims are discriminated against and I can anecdotally attest there are challenges being in Sweden and not speaking strong Swedish. Identical crime rates would be astonishing. However, this was not the reasonable claim being asked; the actual claim was fabricated racist hogwash, which was why it fell so quickly. – Oddthinking Dec 17 '13 at 08:24
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    @Oddthinking I'm not so easily convinced, absent any facts. I'm skeptical like that. – Will Ness Dec 17 '13 at 08:35
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    @WillNess: Great. I look forward to your answer that shows that Muslim immigrants rape at (what would it be?) 1000-ish times the rate of Swedish citizens, while Swedish citizens are by far the least likely nationality to rape in the world, to justify your suggestion, and that Top Conservative News knows this based on quality statistics, but were just a little clumsy with the wording and cited the wrong data. Until then, I am going to disengage. – Oddthinking Dec 17 '13 at 08:42
  • The article from Swedish Radio actually counts the number of reported rapes in the county of Stockholm and not entire Sweden. About 22% of the Swedish population live in the county of Stockholm and I would assume that the immigration density is higher than the country average. Even if the content of the "Top Conservative" article is in no way based on the content of the Swedish Radio news report, the two articles do not necessarily contradict. – Tor-Einar Jarnbjo Dec 17 '13 at 13:01
  • This is an argument from personal incredulity. –  Dec 20 '13 at 16:10
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    It is not an answer from personal incredulity. It demonstrates that the claim has been derived from an invalid source. I feel like the original claim was "Elvis's nickname was '[Chairman of the Board](http://au.askmen.com/top_10/entertainment/79c_top_10_list.html)'" and I have said "Err... no, that link explains that that was *Sinatra's* nickname." and everyone is shouting at me "But that doesn't prove that no-one called Elvis that too!" – Oddthinking Dec 20 '13 at 20:12
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    The part "it is fanciful to assume they are responsible for..." is the part that is argument from personal incredulity. –  Dec 21 '13 at 03:37
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    @Articuno No, just poorly worded. what Oddthinking actually meant was “it is ridiculous to assume that all 300 rapes were committed by Muslim immigrants, and not a single one was committed by Swedish nationals in the same period”. That’s not so much personal incredulity as a proper use of Bayesian priors. Prior probability is so strongly against this hypothesis that it can be dismissed out of hand. – Konrad Rudolph Dec 21 '13 at 13:41
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    @KonradRudolph That is a materially different argument than the one he makes. If he means that, he should say that. He should also state what priors he *is* assuming, justified with evidence (such as the evidence from Tor-Einar's answer). He should demonstrate that 300 rapes (or something close to that) makes up the totality of rapes that occurred during the time period, and compute the likelihood of the observation that 300 rapes were committed by Muslims given the selected priors. It seems to me that Tor-Einar's answer establishes that this is not so fanciful or outside of expectation. –  Dec 21 '13 at 17:55
  • @Articuno It becomes evident at the very latest once you read the other comments here. In fact, he states it *explicitly* in the answer itself: “there were 300 reports of rapes of girls under 15 in the first seven months of 2013.” – Konrad Rudolph Dec 21 '13 at 17:58
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    @KonradRudolph If it's his argument, it should be in the answer, not simply the comments. It also wasn't evident to me that that was his argument until you stated it. Also, that's only part of it the Bayesian prior argument, and it conflicts with Tor-Einar's answer, which says "*In 1133 cases, the victim was below the age of 15.*" (sourced to Swedish official preliminary crime statistics). –  Dec 21 '13 at 18:04
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Their claim is unsupported by any evidence that I can find.

Their source (http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=103&artikel=5612131) makes no mentions of Muslims or Islam.

This blog post explains this away as:

The official radio report quoted from BRÅ (The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention) refuses to mention the M-word in the socialist-suffocated Sweden, a country held hostage by the extreme left. But when you contact senior police and government sources they confirm (anonymous in fear of losing their jobs) that these numbers represent Muslims.

I would not rely on anonymous sources for a claim of this significance.

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    As well as the fact that the reference doesn't mention Muslims, there's at least one other error in their reference: the referenced statistics are for "Stockholm County" (which, Google Translate helpfully translates as "England"), not for the whole of Sweden. – ChrisW Dec 20 '13 at 16:52
  • If you are looking for (any, even tangential) evidence, there are some crime statistics sorted by immigrants versus non-immigrants, in the (Swedish language) references hyperlinked in `Tor-Einar Jarnbjo`'s answer. – ChrisW Dec 20 '13 at 16:57
  • Yeah, I had found that evidence, but I considered it unsupporting of the claim (not refuting it, either, though). Tor-Einar's evidence and argument seems sound to me, and does demonstrate plausibility of the claim. Maybe this should just be an addition to Tor-Einar Jarnbjo's answer... –  Dec 20 '13 at 17:10
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No, it says non-western emigrants, not muslims. Muslims are the vast majority of those but there is no credible source (I could find) on whether the rapists were muslim.

http://www.thelocal.no/20120109/immigrants-behind-most-rapes-in-stavanger <- credible norway source in English that shows the same thing, its says Asian, but the majority of Asians in Norway are West-asian(Arabs).

I could not find a credible source on Sweden for you.

Fey
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