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There is a popular opinion in the Orthodox Jewish world that there is such a thing nowadays as a "Shidduch (Marriage) Crisis", and that a major contributor to it is something known as the "Age Gap."

This theory has been repeated many times in printed and online sources, including this Five Towns Jewish Times "Shidduch Island" article and this YouTube video which was apparently presented at the 2009 Agudah convention.

The idea is that since there is population growth in the Orthodox community (many families have 5-10 children in addition to Baalei Teshuva/Repetents and since men get married older (by at least 4-5 years) than women, there are more women than men at a marriageable age. This results in some girls getting stuck in a "musical chairs" scenario (called the Age Gap Theory), and are unable to find a boyfriend.

If the difference in marriageable age would be 40/50 years I could see this theory to be true.

On the other hand, other (like Chananya Weismann) write that an age difference of 3-5 years shouldn't result in a statistically significant amount of women "left behind" due to the Shidduch Crisis.

Who is right? Are there more 23-year-old Orthodox Jewish men than 18-year-old Orthodox Jewish women, and does this lead some women to be left without an eligible match within the community?

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  • "*This results in some girls getting stuck in a "musical chair" scenario (called the Age Gap Theory), and are stuck for life unable to get married.*" Who is claiming this? –  May 24 '13 at 05:25
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    @Sancho: See the first link. Is that enough to satisfy you for notability? – Oddthinking May 24 '13 at 05:48
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    @Oddthinking re. the comment. I don't know if there are any numbers in the form of Chareidi (or plain Orthodox) 23 year olds vs 18 year olds (especially considering the difficulty in defining Chareidim/Orthodox). What numbers I do expect to see is numbers in generally expanding populations (such as religious Muslims, Catholics, etc). I was thinking if it's possible to solve it using math. – Am Haaretz Gamur Mideoraysa May 24 '13 at 06:04
  • Also see http://matzav.com/readers-matzav-two-solutions-to-the-shidduch-crisis-the-theoretical-one-and-the-practical-one – Am Haaretz Gamur Mideoraysa May 24 '13 at 06:05
  • @Oddthinking I can't find where it is claimed that this causes girls to be stuck for life unable to get married. –  May 24 '13 at 06:35
  • Are you asking about the claim that there are more 23 year old orthodox jewish men than 18 year old orthodox jewish woman? Or are you asking about the claim that if this is the case, that it leads to a crisis of unmarried women? Or are you asking about the claim that this is caused by a difference in marriage preferences and population growth? Or, are you asking about all of these at once? –  May 24 '13 at 06:48
  • @Sancho: Re your first concern: good point. I have softened the statement. – Oddthinking May 24 '13 at 08:58
  • @AmHaaretzGamurMideoraysa: You originally wrote that there might not be hard evidence. It might be possible to support or disprove this theory with math but ONLY if there is empirical evidence to base the math upon - e.g. population demographics. – Oddthinking May 24 '13 at 08:59
  • [A defence of the Age Gap theory](http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=107721) without evidence. – Oddthinking May 24 '13 at 09:05
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    Am I right in saying this is particular to the United States? – Oddthinking May 24 '13 at 09:07
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    Since you admit that there are no hard evidence, and it's very hard to get those. Also there are a lot of other factors that get into the issue that you didn't address like the desirability of the people for shidduch, and that people from different "courts" will not marry each other that can't be quantified and "proven", it's more suitable for [Math.SE](http://math.stackexchange.com/) than here, as this is the place to do statistical analysis. – SIMEL May 24 '13 at 11:35
  • @Ilya: Is census data on the demographics of US Orthodox Jews that hard? Without that data, there's no maths to do. With that data, I don't think it is on-topic there either. – Oddthinking May 24 '13 at 11:49
  • @Oddthinking, there is more to this than just data, because there are "classes" inside that community, and different Hasidic sects that don't really intermarry. Even if this extra data wasn't needed, you would need to deferential between Non religious Jews, religious non orthodox Jews and religious orthodox non Hasidic Jews, and Hasidic Orthodox Jews. I don't believe that this is possible to census, In Israel, where there is census data as to the religious affiliation of people (sort of), and this data is needed, there is no data as to the number of Hasidim or Haredim (not the same) Jews. – SIMEL May 24 '13 at 12:03
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    Just to clarify my previous my previous comment some more. The data needed to prove/disprove the claim is extremely complicated and ill defined, trying ti find this data would be like asking a color blind person how many of the colors in a certain set are green. – SIMEL May 24 '13 at 12:06
  • Self-identification is the normal method of dealing with this issue. – Oddthinking May 24 '13 at 13:00
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    These routes to answering this question will end up being a lot of original research, rather than relying on references.. If this hasn't been studied this way in the literature, then it's probably off-topic here. –  May 24 '13 at 16:58
  • @Oddthinking, self-identification is a good way, but here you need to have a very specific question, something like "Are you a Hasidic Ortodox Jew that relays on the system of Shidduch and will marry only other people who answer this question as yes". It's a very specific question, and I really doubt that a census with this data is available. – SIMEL May 24 '13 at 18:22
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    Just a note concerning what makes a "crisis" here. It is not necessary for a large fraction of young women to be having trouble finding partners; it is sufficient that large fraction of people know a young woman in that boat who they consider to be a good person and a good catch--easy in a tight knit community. If they empathize with her then they perceive a problem. If "everyone" they know also perceives a problem then it is a "crisis". Add in a pinch of media hype and you have a full blown mass hysteria over a small demographic trend. – dmckee --- ex-moderator kitten Jun 24 '13 at 15:25
  • I will not comment on the particular practices of Jewish marriage but: •ASSUMING that all children of orthodox parents grow up orthodox. •ASSUMING that all orthodox children grow up wanting to marry only one partner, of the opposite sex •ASSUMING that there is an equal number of male and female children of orthodox parents THEN There is no marriage crisis - for each adult orthodox woman who has not found a husband, there is an adult orthodox man who has not found a wife. Yes, even when you account for the age gap. – shieldfoss Jun 25 '13 at 11:17
  • @medivh You missed an assumption or three built into the question. (1) That orthodox couples have more than two children on average; (2) that women are only marrigable during a certain span a years after which they are treated as defective in some cultural way and (3) that men don't start looking until an older age than women, in which case you do get unmarried people of both genders. Presumably the resolution is to give up the idea that twenty-something female is an old maid, but we are talking about a fairly conservative culture. – dmckee --- ex-moderator kitten Jun 25 '13 at 20:44
  • Worth noting, studies seem to show that males make up about 5% more of the births. And if we are restricting ourselves to America/Canada/UK/etc (places with very safe standards of living) will continue to outnumber women until like 40-50. This hypothesised phenomenon is not restricted to Judaism. People talk about it happening in the entire English speaking world. Counter to what some people have suggested so far, it is generally blamed on underpreforming men. While they might outnumber women, a significant number are not trying hard enough or not given a chance to become a worthy husbands. – Jonathon Sep 08 '14 at 15:51
  • @dmckee - "after which they are treated as defective in some cultural way and" - that's **biological**, not cultural. Woman's fertility drops off as she ages, never mind risks of diseases of post-40 pregnancy. Orthodox Jews view children as important part of being married, unlike secular world where these days it's considered normal to not have any kids. – user5341 Sep 08 '14 at 16:57
  • @DVK Two things. (1) Men over forty also incur both reduced fertility and increased risk of siring children with birth defects. (2) They are not talking about forty year-olds in the first place, they are talking about women in their late teens and twenties. – dmckee --- ex-moderator kitten Sep 08 '14 at 18:06
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    @dmckee - (1) there's a **major** asymmetry in the drop-off. (2) Again, you're applying western secular sensibilities. When you plan/wish on having 5-8 kids, a 29 year old woman is not nearly as desirable a match as 19 year old. – user5341 Sep 08 '14 at 18:14
  • This is relevant http://shidduchstudy.wordpress.com/about/ – ike Nov 09 '14 at 02:08

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