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There is a decent amount of anecdotal evidence about manual transmissions being a good anti-theft device - but are there any statistics?

Here's a statistic-less article from MSN.com

It's folk wisdom: If no one really drives a manual transmission anymore, then no one's going to want to steal one, right?

Makes sense. It makes good sense, in fact. That little stick on the floor might as well come with a big car-insurance discount; one look down and any thief with an ounce of sense is going to move right along.

Or will he? Does the evidence back up this bit of wishful thinking on the part of manual enthusiasts?

Can anyone find any proper statistics to back or refute the claim? How about percentage of people that can drive stick? Anything?

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Ehryk
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    You should probably mention which country this is about, in many countries manual transmissions are the norm. – Mad Scientist May 06 '13 at 12:03
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    How can a manual gearbox be good anti-theft? O.o Only people that uses automatic is like handicapped and old people in Sweden. Neither are the most common thieves. – Wertilq May 06 '13 at 12:06
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    I'm looking for any statistics from any country, though I live in the U.S.A. Only 3-5% of vehicle sales are manual transmission here, and as such a low percentage of the population (statistic, anyone?) know how to drive them, it's commonly said that many common thieves might pass it by as 'not an easy target'. I'm looking for studies/statistics/numbers to support or refute this. – Ehryk May 06 '13 at 12:55
  • (please don't take this as "I'm only looking for U.S.A. statistics." I have been unable to find any about ANY country, so I welcome all data possible...) – Ehryk May 06 '13 at 12:58
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    The source you cite even says that it is not a deterrent. I think you need to find a source that says that it is beyond a few anecdotes of places where it foiled a crime. – Chad May 06 '13 at 13:26
  • It says lots of things, sure - but the claim that it's not a deterrent is no more or less backed by any statistics or data then the counterclaim. There are lots of articles on both sides, anecdotal evidence and so forth - I want data. – Ehryk May 06 '13 at 13:50
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    @Ehryk: you say that you're not looking "only for USA statistics", yet in other countries automatic transmission is used mainly by handicapped, and manual is the norm and requirement to get fully recognized driver's license. – vartec May 06 '13 at 14:24
  • I'd be interested in theft and other related statistics in relation to those countries as well. Is the U.S. the only country in which manuals are rare? Including Canada, Mexico, Australia, the U.K., etc? How about sources on that? – Ehryk May 06 '13 at 15:26
  • @Ehryk: depends on what you call "rare", I wouldn't call 40+% rare. – vartec May 06 '13 at 15:39
  • I can't find a source for percentage of manual transmission sales/ownership for any country besides the U.S. - 5% and 12%. Which country(s) are you referring to, and do you have a link to a source? – Ehryk May 06 '13 at 16:10
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    Since the stolen car is likely to end up being parted out or shipped overseas, I'd be surprised if the transmission mattered at all when choosing a car to steal. I'd be surprised if a car thief didn't know how to drive a manual. – Johnny May 06 '13 at 18:45
  • @Ehryk: with 40%+ manuals I was referring to Australia, in Europe (including UK) [manual dominates](http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Pocketbook_LowRes_withNotes-1.pdf) see p. 20. In UK automatics are only 20%. – vartec May 06 '13 at 19:39
  • BTW. in the above stats for Europe, 'automatic' in the German cars apparently means mainly [DSG](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct-Shift_Gearbox), which isn't anything like American automatic – vartec May 06 '13 at 20:10
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    In a country with 5-12% manual, will the thief even know how to drive one? – Benjol May 07 '13 at 06:41
  • @Benjol: that's the whole point of the "deterrent" idea. OTOH, in US the cars that are manuals are mostly luxury sports cars, which are way more likely to be stolen. – vartec May 07 '13 at 08:39
  • @Johnny: Professional stolen cars broken down for parts only accounts for a part of the cars stolen. – Oddthinking May 07 '13 at 15:09
  • You need to provide a notable source that makes the claim "manual cars are stolen less", or something along those lines. The MSN article doesn't make that claim. –  May 07 '13 at 16:16
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    You could probably rephrase this question to: "are most american car thieves idiots?" – matt_black May 07 '13 at 21:05
  • @vartec I'm curious if you have a source citing that most US manuals are luxury sports cars. My nuclear family drives manuals, and they are all reasonably-priced sedans. And a decent amount of large pickup trucks are manuals so people can get into lower gears for pulling out tree stumps and such. Not to mention 18-wheelers. – SocioMatt May 09 '13 at 18:37

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In the USA, it certainly makes at least a minor difference. There is a running theme on Jalopnik of stories like this

They apparently couldn't start it. I had to tell him four different times to push in the clutch, because it's a standard transmission.

My first thought was I guess we don't have driver's ed in school anymore because no one knows how to drive a stick. And my second thing was, don't shoot me because you can't start the car. I'm trying to help you out here. You know. Thankfully they didn't.

Obviously not scientific, as it is only one of many stories like this. But even if only a handful of thieves can not drive stick that is at least a tiny bit safer for American manuals.

It is not a single event either, maybe not common but it does happen somewhat frequently and here is another example

Swahn says one of them pulled out a gun, got in the car, and tried to take off. Deputies say neither of them knew how to drive a car with a manual transmission. They got out and fled on foot.

Also, this story has been reused dozens of times, Carinsurance.com, MSN, and here is FOX

The best information I can see is anecdotal from the police force:

800,000 vehicles were reported stolen in the U.S., one every 40 seconds), but police say that only a tiny percentage of stolen cars have manual transmissions.

So maybe that "tiny fraction" means %.001 or ~5% inline with the manual sales.

I think the best we can do for an answer though is either it depends or it is unknown:

Frank Scafidi, director of public affairs for the National Insurance Crime Bureau, which tracks car-theft trends, says he's not aware of any data to support or refute that idea.

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2011/03/28/stick-shift-anti-theft-device/#ixzz2SdCjZyrl

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