I heard some legends about an early 17th century outlaw, who on one occasion allegedly defeated alone a number of musketeers: because of the terrain, they could only advance in a single line, so one had to shoot, and retreat to reload (if surviving the shots of their opponent), allowing the next one to shoot.
I never had the occasion to fire a matchlock, so I don't know that much about it. I know, that two explosions happen, when the burning match hits the priming charge, and a fraction of a second later, the shot is fired.
So you can know in advance when the shot is coming, and may have time to react. However, there is the dilemma of the goalkeeper: you should jump before you know where the ball is coming. Maybe the shot would have missed you, but you dodged in exactly that direction for it to hit you?
I can imagine, that if you see one flash, it means the barrel is perfectly aligned and the shot will probably hit you, so you should dodge. If you see two distinct flashes, it means the aim is bad, and you should not move. If I remember correctly, that was the explanation of how he did it. (Of course, this all assumes the inaccuracy due to aiming is generally larger than due to the spread, but I don't think it's that big of a problem, as matchlocks fire with a thunderous explosion near your face so most shooters close their eyes before firing, and the heavy muskets of those times were significantly slower than from Napoleon's time, but more accurate due to being longer and not mass-produced)
So, can one really dodge the fire of a matchlock musket (let's say at the very edge of its effective range), using the tactics described above?