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It is simple to calculate the expected uptime based on past data.

But a "guarantee" is totally another concept.

How do companies manage that?

somebody4
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  • This is a question about contracts, not technology. There are usually penalties listed with any guarantee. If there isn't, you've got nothing but 'their word'. It's handled with a Service Level Agreement. –  Jul 09 '20 at 06:24
  • @yoonix Okay....I thought they have some kind of sophisticated statistical model.... – somebody4 Jul 09 '20 at 08:46

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They lie through their teeth and/or have good lawyers write them service level agreements that effectively prevent customers from seeking damages when something does break?

Of course you should start out with a well-designed and resilient architecture, but occasionally things will blow up in your face when you poke them, and as you note you can’t really predict the future based on your historical track record.

Mikael H
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