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I'm putting together a plan for a fruit wine business, and need to calculate expected yields for fruit trees each year from the date of planting. I have found various resources that provide 'time to first fruiting' and 'yield at maturity', but rarely can I find information stating the yield at first fruiting and the time to maturity. Without these pieces of information, it is impossible to estimate expected yield from year to year.

I am aware of how hopelessly imprecise any such calculations would be; locality and climate clearly have a large impact. Nevertheless, I need to show some figures from an authoritative source to provide a rough estimate for year-on-year production. Given the four pieces of information above, I could assume a linear increase in yield from the first fruiting until maturity.

Does anyone know of a reliable source of such information for fruiting trees? I am based in the UK, so ideally am looking for a resource relating to temperate climates.

Edit: To provide some logic for asking this question: our local government allows people to establish smallholdings if they can provide a business plan for a land-based enterprise. These business plans are heavily scrutinised, so although I recognise that any figures are likely to be imprecise, so long as they are from a reputable source, they would provide a 'ballpark' estimate of year-on-year yield from various crops. We can then base our business plan around, for example, a very poor year in which only 30% of the expected crop is yielded.

CaptainProg
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    The answer depends hugely on how you prune the trees, how big *you* choose the "mature" trees should be, and what rootstock they are grafted onto. In simple terms, trees either produce a good fruit crop (if you don't stop them, either by pruning or thinning the crop) or they grow bigger, but they don't do both at the same time. – alephzero Jan 01 '19 at 14:47
  • Every cultivar has its own timeline and this is usually one of the selling points of nurseries, that a particular new one will reach maturity faster than another. What I would do is try to decide what cultivars I will be likely to grow, then search for information, online or at seller/producer. – Alina Jan 01 '19 at 19:18
  • I agree with both of the above points; I understand that any figures are likely to be wildly imprecise, but nevertheless they will provide a ballpark figure, and in order to put together a business application, some sort of figures are needed (precise or not). I am looking for a reputable database of information for different cultivars (I understand also that you can't generalise to something as broad as "damson tree"). I understand the variability, but our local government allows you to set up a smallholding only if you can provide a concrete business plan that includes these figures. – CaptainProg Jan 02 '19 at 11:32
  • Which fruits do you want to grow? Asking about all fruit bearing trees is a little too broad even for a professional resource, so can you narrow it down please? – Bamboo Jan 02 '19 at 12:58
  • I'm voting to close this question as off-topic because it's asking for a link to an off-site resource. Please see https://gardening.meta.stackexchange.com/questions/634/do-we-really-want-questions-asking-for-off-site-resources for our policy on this type of question. – Niall C. Jan 02 '19 at 16:42
  • @Bamboo Specifically, edible fruits in temperate climates. I wonder whether a database already exists (yes it would be rather large), or if there is a book that could be useful in this case. – CaptainProg Jan 02 '19 at 19:46
  • @Niall C, if StackExchange isn't the place to ask this question, then where is? – CaptainProg Jan 02 '19 at 19:46
  • If you're growing fruit in the UK, and you're unable to be specific other than fruiting trees, you maybe should read this first https://www.orangepippintrees.co.uk/articles/growing-fruit-trees-in-the-uk-climate. And note that how you train and prune makes a massive difference, or can do, to fruit yields...have you decided what method you'll use? – Bamboo Jan 02 '19 at 23:29

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