Scoring rule

In decision theory, a scoring rule provides a summary measure for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions or forecasts. It is applicable to tasks in which predictions assign probabilities to events, i.e. one issues a probability distribution as prediction. This includes probabilistic classification of a set of mutually exclusive outcomes or classes.

On the other hand, a scoring function provides a summary measure for the evaluation of point predictions, i.e. one predicts a property or functional , like the expectation or the median.

Scoring rules and scoring functions can be thought of as "cost functions" or "loss functions". They are evaluated as empirical mean of a given sample, simply called score. Scores of different predictions or models can then be compared to conclude which model is best.

If a cost is levied in proportion to a proper scoring rule, the minimal expected cost corresponds to reporting the true set of probabilities. Proper scoring rules are used in meteorology, finance, and pattern classification where a forecaster or algorithm will attempt to minimize the average score to yield refined, calibrated probabilities (i.e. accurate probabilities).

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