Elite overproduction

Elite overproduction is a concept developed by Peter Turchin, which describes the condition of a society which is producing too many potential elite members relative to its ability to absorb them into the power structure. This, he hypothesizes, is a cause for social instability, as those left out of power feel aggrieved by their relatively low socioeconomic status.

However, Turchin's model cannot foretell precisely how a crisis will unfold; it can only yield probabilities. Turchin likened this to the accumulation of deadwood in a forest over many years, paving the way for a cataclysmic forest fire later on. It is possible to predict a massive conflagration, Turchin argues, but not what causes it. Nor does it offer definitive solutions, though it can clarify the trade-offs of various options. For Turchin, history suggests that non-violent reversal of elite overproduction is possible, citing the two decades after World War II in the United States, a time of high taxes on the wealthy and strong labor unions.