Climate change in Africa

Climate change in Africa is an increasingly serious threat as Africa is among the most vulnerable continents to the effects of climate change. Some sources even classify Africa as "the most vulnerable continent on Earth". This vulnerability is driven by a range of factors that include weak adaptive capacity, high dependence on ecosystem goods for livelihoods, and less developed agricultural production systems. The risks of climate change on agricultural production, food security, water resources and ecosystem services will likely have increasingly severe consequences on lives and sustainable development prospects in Africa. With high confidence, it was projected by the IPCC in 2007 that in many African countries and regions, agricultural production and food security would probably be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability. Managing this risk requires an integration of mitigation and adaptation strategies in the management of ecosystem goods and services, and the agriculture production systems in Africa.

Over the coming decades, warming from climate change is expected across almost all the Earth's surface, and global mean rainfall will increase. Currently, Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world on average. Large portions of the continent may become uninhabitable as a result of the rapid effects of climate change, which would have disastrous effects on human health, food security, and poverty. Regional effects on rainfall in the tropics are expected to be much more spatially variable and the sign of change at any one location is often less certain, although changes are expected. Consistent with this, observed surface temperatures have generally increased over Africa since the late 19th century to the early 21st century by about 1 °C, but locally as much as 3 °C for minimum temperature in the Sahel at the end of the dry season. Observed precipitation trends indicate spatial and temporal discrepancies as expected. The observed changes in temperature and precipitation vary regionally.

For instance, Kenya experiences high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The main climate hazards include droughts and floods with current projects forecasting more intense and less predictable rainfall. In addition, other projections anticipate temperatures rising by 0.5 to 2 °C. In crowded, urban settlements in Nairobi, Kenya, the conditions of informal settlements or "slums" may exacerbate the impacts of climate change and disaster-related risk. In particular, the living conditions of large informal settlements often create a warmer "micro-climate" due to home construction materials, lack of ventilation, sparse green space, and poor access to electrical power and other services. To mitigate climate change-related risks in these informal neighborhood settlements, it will be important to upgrade these settlements through urban development interventions that are built for climate resilience.

In terms of adaptation efforts, regional-level actors are making some progress. This includes the development and adoption of several regional climate change adaptation strategies e.g. SADC Policy Paper Climate Change, and the adaptation strategy for the water sector. In addition, there have been other efforts to enhance climate change adaptation, such as the Programme on Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation in Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA-EAC-SADC).

As a supranational organisation of 55 member states, the African Union has put forward 47 goals and corresponding actions in a 2014 draft report to combat and mitigate climate change on the continent. The Secretary General of the United Nations has also declared a need for close cooperation with the African Union to tackle climate change, in accordance with the UN's sustainable development goals. The United Nations estimates that, considering the continent's population growth, yearly funding of $1.3 trillion would be needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in Africa. The International Monetary Fund also estimates that $50 billion may be needed only to cover the expenses of climate adaptation.