2010 RF12

2010 RF12 is a very small asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79,000 kilometres (49,000 mi) above Antarctica. The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with 2010 RX30. Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth. 2010 RF12 was rediscovered in August 2022, and now has a 12 year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces, there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.

Nominal Earth Approach on 6 September 2095 with a 12-year observation arc
Date Impact
probability
JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)
uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:201:100.00035 AU (52 thousand km)±180 thousand km

2010 RF12
Discovery
Discovered byMount Lemmon Srvy.
Discovery siteMount Lemmon Obs.
Discovery date5 September 2010
Designations
2010 RF12
NEO · Apollo
Orbital characteristics
Epoch 2023-Feb-25 (JD 2460000.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0 (MPC) 2 (JPL)
Observation arc11.98 years
Aphelion1.261 AU
Perihelion0.86145 AU
1.0611 AU
Eccentricity0.18819
1.093 yr (399 d)
84.6°
0° 54m 9s / day
Inclination0.88248°
163.71°
2022-Nov-23
267.39°
Earth MOID0.00054 AU (81 thousand km; 0.21 LD)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter
7 m
6–12 meters (CNEOS)
28.4
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