2005 ED224
2005 ED224 was the soonest virtual impactor of an asteroid larger than 50 meters in diameter with a better than 1:1-million chance of impacting Earth. On 11 March 2023 the line of variations (LOV) showed a 1-in-500,000 chance of impact. It is estimated to be 54-meters in diameter and has a short observation arc of 3-days. On 11 March 2023 it was nominally expected to be 2.7 AU (400 million km) from Earth but had an uncertainty region billions of kilometers long. Since it has not been observed since 2005 and has an orbital period of 2.6±0.3 years, we do not know where on its orbit 2005 ED224 is. Between 2005 and 2023 it could have orbited the Sun 6.2 to 7.8 times. On 11 March 2030 it has a 1-in-6,300,000 chance of impact but is expected to be 3.5 AU (520 million km) from Earth (near the asteroid's farthest distance from the Sun). On 10 March 2064 it has a 1-in-2,600,000 chance of impact but is expected to be 3.2 AU (480 million km) from Earth.
| Discovery | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | LINEAR (704) 1.0-m Reflector |
| Discovery site | Lincoln Lab's ETS |
| Discovery date | 13 March 2005 |
| Designations | |
| 2005 ED224 | |
| Orbital characteristics | |
| Epoch 16 March 2005 (JD 2453445.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 9 | |
| Observation arc | 3.1 days |
| Aphelion | 3.17±0.26 AU (Q) |
| Perihelion | 0.649±0.003 AU (q) |
| 1.91±0.16 AU (a) | |
| Eccentricity | 0.66±0.03 (e) |
| 2.6±0.3 years | |
| 20°±3° (M) | |
| Inclination | 31.9°±1.1° (i) |
| 170.53°±0.06° (Ω) | |
| 277.3°±0.9° (ω) | |
| Earth MOID | 0.0013 AU (190,000 km) ? |
| Jupiter MOID | 2.9 AU (430,000,000 km) ? |
| Physical characteristics | |
| Dimensions |
|
| 23.99 (JPL) 24.3 (MPC) | |
It was first observed on 13 March 2005 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.056 ± 0.006 AU (8.38 ± 0.90 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 137 degrees.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-11 | 2.4 million | 1.7 AU (250 million km) | 1.7 AU (250 million km) | 1.4 AU (210 million km) | 1.2 AU (180 million km) | ± 5 billion km |
| 2023-03-11 | 500 thousand | 2.7 AU (400 million km) | 2.7 AU (400 million km) | 0.95 AU (142 million km) | 4.0 AU (600 million km) | ± 3 billion km |
The 11 March 2018 virtual impactor did not occur. The line of variation (LOV) for 2018 was billions of kilometers long and wrapped around the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth. The 2023 line of variation (LOV) was also billions of kilometers long and stretched around the asteroid's known orbit.